TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Canadiens vs. Red Wings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Red Wingsof Canadiens, Red Wings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$638,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $638,908 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 473 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf195…8057backed Red Wings49c196,042$96,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,981.435352.8%28 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Canadiens51c125,555$64,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,477.5267051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Red Wings48c117,345$56,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,019.3851550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Canadiens52c97,226$50,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,347.4648545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Canadiens51c70,000$35,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,70024349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Canadiens51c55,000$28,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,049.751,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Red Wings49c42,170$20,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,702.4561950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Canadiens51c30,900$15,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,75948549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Red Wings48c22,338$10,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,686.1127448.9%134 W · 140 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Canadiens51c20,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,20014650.7%74 W · 72 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Red Wings49c14,000$6,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,1901,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Red Wings50c12,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Red Wings48c10,935$5,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,686.421,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Canadiens52c10,436$5,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,426.7226058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Canadiens51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,10032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Red Wings49c8,612$4,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,384.411,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Red Wings48c7,897$3,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,106.5733941.3%140 W · 199 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Canadiens51c7,226$3,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,690.2812838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Red Wings48c7,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,639.9860249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Red Wings49c6,102$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,112.0440356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Red Wings49c6,060$2,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,090.651452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Red Wings48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.9843548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Canadiens51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,059.954440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Canadiens51c5,853$2,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,964.521,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Canadiens52c5,800$3,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,01615749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Red Wings48c5,783$2,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,007.2236748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb46a…683bbacked Canadiens52c5,775$3,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Red Wings48c5,600$2,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,91227850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Red Wings49c5,555$2,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,833.052948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Red Wings49c5,554$2,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,832.5461953.8%333 W · 286 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Canadiens51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,55013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Canadiens51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.9727243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Canadiens59c4,566$2,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,689.991,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5abb…8633backed Canadiens52c4,500$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,34010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x607d…53a1backed Red Wings48c4,500$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,34013446.3%62 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings49c4,252$2,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,153.762,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b9…d142backed Canadiens52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0809752.6%51 W · 46 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Red Wings48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,08029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Red Wings48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.9639752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Canadiens51c3,500$1,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,78513333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Red Wings49c3,134$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,596.389249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Red Wings49c3,061$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,561.2231550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Red Wings50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50060337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Red Wings48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56019353.9%104 W · 89 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Red Wings48c2,979$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.9191653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa10e…4ea1backed Canadiens54c2,968$1,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,601.484143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Red Wings49c2,800$1,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,42844551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Red Wings49c2,673$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.4785250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Canadiens51c2,500$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27584953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Red Wings49c2,471$1,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.563249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Red Wings45c2,269$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.252,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Red Wings50c2,250$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.181,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Canadiens52c2,222$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.4486649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Red Wings48c2,222$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.4410850.9%55 W · 53 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Red Wings49c2,084$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,062.8479350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Canadiens50c2,020$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0106656.1%37 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab8…a331backed Red Wings50c2,009$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0091136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Red Wings49c2,000$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.954047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Canadiens52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0406538.5%25 W · 40 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Canadiens52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04033151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Canadiens50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Red Wings49c1,666$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.5664242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Red Wings48c1,650$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.4862346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Red Wings46c1,616$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.7433234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Red Wings48c1,581$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.723,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Red Wings46c1,476$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.4795049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…5554backed Red Wings48c1,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62445749.2%225 W · 232 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7b…0147backed Red Wings49c1,200$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Red Wings49c1,196$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.259450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88ae…9c62backed Red Wings49c1,118$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.371838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20b2…241bbacked Red Wings48c1,080$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Red Wings48c1,025$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5332,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Canadiens51c1,020$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.1942847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Canadiens52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52061748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b35…5da2backed Canadiens52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50022043.2%95 W · 125 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc84f…d217backed Canadiens52c960$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Canadiens55c900$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.8720147.3%95 W · 106 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Red Wings46c889.82$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.952,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Red Wings49c799$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.4926551.3%136 W · 129 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ff…1721backed Red Wings49c793$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.43475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+55.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25c2…cd02backed Canadiens52c790$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.83259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd954…4185backed Canadiens52c770$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f8…dc5dbacked Canadiens52c769.23$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.0wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf535…975cbacked Red Wings49c768$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.68771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+42.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e95…5b00backed Red Wings49c760$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc868…9f66backed Canadiens52c760$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-60.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf41b…dd9dbacked Canadiens52c758$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.16683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+63.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedd7…4e85backed Red Wings49c758$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.58757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc820…5366backed Canadiens52c756$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.12875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x036c…f5a6backed Red Wings49c752$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.52850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceaa…9ffebacked Canadiens52c752$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.04850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Canadiens53c750$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.3938445.8%176 W · 208 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c19…064fbacked Red Wings48c740$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Red Wings49c714.29$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.295547.3%26 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda2e…13dabacked Canadiens52c700$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67db…aad5backed Canadiens53c680$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9b…a6dabacked Canadiens52c650$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…3f04backed Red Wings49c650$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Canadiens51c645.9$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.414753.2%25 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd0b…4857backed Canadiens50c628.45$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.0921846.8%102 W · 116 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.