NHL · resolved market
Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3f1fbb32de757b22f70df2dd6b86696bce524ee8b83e7fd8e8e31e961d98c17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Red Wings, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,958 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cfc…611abacked Red Wings | 28c | 291$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…2dd8backed Canadiens | 72c | 277$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…9c76backed Canadiens | 72c | 275$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…45e0backed Canadiens | 72c | 258$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…fe22backed Canadiens | 72c | 254$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c6…eea4backed Canadiens | 72c | 254$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Red Wings | 29c | 252.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.91 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…102dbacked Red Wings | 28c | 252$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2355…c79dbacked Canadiens | 72c | 250$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…f606backed Red Wings | 28c | 243$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…3706backed Red Wings | 28c | 240$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x109e…0d79backed Red Wings | 28c | 224$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd689…ed1fbacked Red Wings | 28c | 223$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…9bc6backed Red Wings | 28c | 219$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0817…3156backed Canadiens | 72c | 210$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…910dbacked Canadiens | 72c | 205$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7043…80afbacked Canadiens | 72c | 205$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…bc1fbacked Red Wings | 28c | 205$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f9…be19backed Canadiens | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e3…59d8backed Canadiens | 72c | 197$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…09f7backed Red Wings | 28c | 197$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18fa…7f0dbacked Red Wings | 28c | 196$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…2320backed Red Wings | 28c | 193$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0206…ef6abacked Canadiens | 72c | 183$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…ca3ebacked Canadiens | 72c | 180$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb140…8641backed Red Wings | 28c | 179$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +234.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1af…76aebacked Canadiens | 72c | 166$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…e4bfbacked Red Wings | 28c | 162$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9f…a695backed Canadiens | 72c | 161$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…4421backed Red Wings | 28c | 156$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ee4backed Red Wings | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Red Wings | 21c | 150$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe698…a6c9backed Red Wings | 28c | 143$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Canadiens | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Canadiens | 71c | 81.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Canadiens | 70c | 61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Red Wings | 30c | 61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Red Wings | 18c | 60.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Canadiens | 72c | 55.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Red Wings | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Canadiens | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Canadiens vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.