NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66c7150d197de2885abcac0eeb1a418611ae9c90fc1912adba740fbbb7338adb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,932 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e71…009cbacked Over | 26c | 272$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…96ecbacked Over | 26c | 268$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…f0adbacked Under | 74c | 268$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2d…e472backed Under | 74c | 266$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…c361backed Under | 74c | 266$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…dcacbacked Under | 74c | 264$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…cd18backed Under | 74c | 258$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…aa8fbacked Under | 74c | 254$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2beb…066ebacked Under | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aec…ff50backed Under | 74c | 240$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…b850backed Under | 74c | 240$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde05…5b40backed Over | 26c | 235$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…941ebacked Over | 26c | 229$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…0dbabacked Under | 74c | 227$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4700…3575backed Over | 26c | 224$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e64…88f6backed Over | 26c | 216$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988f…d86fbacked Under | 74c | 216$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefd…ff7bbacked Under | 74c | 212$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3724…8fcabacked Over | 26c | 209$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…7e98backed Under | 74c | 206$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ea…2ce8backed Over | 26c | 205$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…19a7backed Under | 74c | 204$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b9…00bbbacked Over | 26c | 203$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7251…6c23backed Over | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a1…5f20backed Under | 74c | 187$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…1016backed Over | 26c | 183$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22c…6a97backed Under | 74c | 167$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…d1cabacked Over | 26c | 162$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…11bdbacked Over | 26c | 157$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e7…ca93backed Over | 26c | 149$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…bd9fbacked Over | 26c | 144$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bd…44e2backed Over | 26c | 142$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6c…f86abacked Over | 26c | 141$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7aa…19f1backed Over | 26c | 131$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f2…8d90backed Over | 26c | 128$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc533…fd77backed Over | 26c | 127$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5090…ccb2backed Under | 75c | 28.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -6.3wins | -0.35per pick | 63cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 73c | 28.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 70c | 20.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5this page
- Canadiens vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Canadiens vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Red Wings won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.