NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcab83d15ba66bfc5106f9f37ad696b67eea6912d66b7ef099bf587a0fd178ed9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Canadiens, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70a8…041cbacked Red Wings | 71c | 2,100$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8761…d232backed Red Wings | 71c | 1,890$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…8d6cbacked Canadiens | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…9a71backed Red Wings | 71c | 1,385$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce3…3925backed Red Wings | 71c | 1,300$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Red Wings | 69c | 1,197$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.22 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Canadiens | 31c | 1,061$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.77 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Red Wings | 69c | 669$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.7 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5118…494cbacked Canadiens | 29c | 455$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf9…f10fbacked Canadiens | 29c | 337$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…f038backed Canadiens | 29c | 325$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Red Wings | 70c | 305.97$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Canadiens | 29c | 297.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…c1dfbacked Red Wings | 71c | 273$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699e…b4f5backed Red Wings | 71c | 259$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Canadiens | 31c | 241.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bc…9e7ebacked Red Wings | 71c | 231$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…48f0backed Canadiens | 31c | 222.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef1…c8fabacked Red Wings | 71c | 183$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…6fa8backed Red Wings | 71c | 171$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Canadiens | 30c | 169$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Red Wings | 69c | 165$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Red Wings | 71c | 135$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Canadiens | 31c | 133$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Red Wings | 71c | 132$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Canadiens | 28c | 131.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8a…093bbacked Canadiens | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Red Wings | 77c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Canadiens | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Canadiens | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e00…9e93backed Canadiens | 32c | 36.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Red Wings | 71c | 30.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Red Wings | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Canadiens vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.