NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1befef49d0e0de0c828e427cad5ae41487a5590ac788fd01b5853d84ad17bc87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,477 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Under | 2c | 2,622$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.22 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 39c | 1,569$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.11 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 1,383$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.73 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 59c | 1,361$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.26 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Under | 59c | 1,014$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.25 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 59c | 669.63$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.32 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 64c | 592.1$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.44 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 59c | 557$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.72 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 62c | 521.92$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.57 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 41c | 438.99$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.01 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…cd02backed Under | 53c | 408$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.55 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa80…f251backed Under | 25c | 395.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 41c | 378$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.02 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 41c | 348.29$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.49 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 48c | 303.6$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.36 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 44c | 267.64$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.62 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 65c | 262.91$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed Over | 42c | 234$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…1405backed Under | 46c | 230$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 59c | 183.12$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 42c | 170$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2e…7913backed Under | 60c | 167.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 58c | 155$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.42 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 41c | 145.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…01c7backed Under | 35c | 128.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 61c | 118.73$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…c8ebbacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 60c | 89.97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 60c | 78.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 35c | 52.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 40c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 43c | 40.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…454fbacked Under | 34c | 31.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Under | 40c | 30.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Under | 35c | 30.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…3c0fbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30de…cc5fbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 41c | 24.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 65c | 15.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 66c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5this page
- Flyers vs. PenguinsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.