NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88f7805adcaf86c2ba54db7f76ddc36081e2df3d07526d4af052c37651a933dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,336 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 38c | 1,449$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.55 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Over | 62c | 564.52$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.52 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…cd02backed Over | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 20c | 415.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Over | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 554 | 46.4%257 W · 297 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 32c | 134.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 80c | 111.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 59c | 101$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Over | 45c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 36c | 51.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Under | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d92…68e8backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 62c | 29.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Over | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8261…a3f1backed Over | 62c | 24.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Over | 77c | 20.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5this page
- Lightning vs. CanucksLightning won
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.