NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f9e15446ff85fe18d4a9af2de479f14b58dd14f5d29b1d70606c1fa52e3787a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Canucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,605 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Canucks | 49c | 5,671$2,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.08 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Canucks | 47c | 5,534$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600.78 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3233…a4ddbacked Lightning | 53c | 4,146$2,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,948.56 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Canucks | 47c | 3,802$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,801.88 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44d6…9858backed Lightning | 50c | 3,140$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.92 | 291 | 46.7%136 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…fa47backed Lightning | 53c | 2,730$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.1 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Lightning | 53c | 2,470$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Canucks | 47c | 2,318$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.31 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Canucks | 47c | 2,313$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.14 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Lightning | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Lightning | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…7eeebacked Lightning | 53c | 1,453$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lightning | 51c | 1,398$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.95 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lightning | 51c | 1,208$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.8 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Lightning | 52c | 1,041$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.68 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Lightning | 70c | 677.46$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.16 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Lightning | 53c | 566$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.02 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc339…ba5bbacked Lightning | 53c | 460.38$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.38 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Lightning | 52c | 400.07$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.03 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Canucks | 49c | 316.92$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.44 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Canucks | 47c | 309.57$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.46 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Lightning | 52c | 299.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -13.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Canucks | 48c | 270.83$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Lightning | 53c | 264.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Canucks | 28c | 251.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.31 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Lightning | 51c | 249.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 749 | 51.8%388 W · 361 L | +18.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Canucks | 49c | 230.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.05 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Lightning | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.42 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Lightning | 53c | 224$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Canucks | 47c | 212.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…9ae9backed Canucks | 48c | 206.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Lightning | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Canucks | 34c | 192.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Lightning | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Lightning | 52c | 159.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.79 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed Canucks | 15c | 151.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Canucks | 47c | 151.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Canucks | 33c | 141.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Canucks | 33c | 129.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0112…4fe9backed Lightning | 53c | 128.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Canucks | 48c | 119.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Canucks | 49c | 115.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Canucks | 49c | 114$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning | 52c | 111.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Lightning | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…8b04backed Lightning | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lightning | 53c | 74.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Lightning | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d8…49b8backed Lightning | 53c | 60.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Canucks | 47c | 60.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Canucks | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Canucks | 49c | 59.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…038ebacked Canucks | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…2bf4backed Canucks | 49c | 50.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Lightning | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Lightning | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 142 | 45.1%64 W · 78 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…6cecbacked Lightning | 50c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Lightning | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Lightning | 52c | 36.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Canucks | 47c | 29.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 477 | 53.9%257 W · 220 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Lightning | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Lightning | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d02bbacked Canucks | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Canucks | 48c | 23.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Lightning | 52c | 21.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Lightning | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Lightning vs. CanucksLightning won
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.