NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89758dc8c40e0d07120a67a18ee56e1f8fdc3f6f8171a673ff36a707ca96246d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,723 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 255 | 52.5%134 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 51c | 2,858$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.77 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 2,622$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.04 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…2ce9backed Over | 50c | 2,034$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.14 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +195.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,263$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.47 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 52c | 1,076$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.37 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 1c | 940.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed Under | 51c | 911.98$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.11 | 246 | 54.5%134 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 48c | 704.72$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.45 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 620.38$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.74 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 35c | 583.21$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.45 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 331.24$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.87 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 63c | 324.23$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.4 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7473…89eebacked Under | 54c | 272$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 32c | 234.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…9153backed Under | 53c | 220$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 60c | 188.03$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 71c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Over | 39c | 147.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Under | 55c | 143.85$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.12 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 29c | 126.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 105 | 40%42 W · 63 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 60c | 124.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 68c | 104.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Under | 52c | 97.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85b1…4814backed Under | 24c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 41c | 78.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 70c | 78.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 40c | 72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 41c | 67.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 52c | 64.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 58c | 53.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 71c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Over | 45c | 46.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 40c | 46.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Over | 66c | 46.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 76c | 44.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 48c | 40.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 30.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c01…8c6cbacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 50c | 22.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Under | 52c | 22.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked Under | 67c | 16.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5this page
- Lightning vs. CanucksLightning won
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.