NHL · resolved market
Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x236e5b77f7a3764c0ea5b0f286f68b9bf695525ea5fba2656050ac6a9192ce2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,859 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 3c | 906.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 2c | 900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 60c | 313.68$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.76 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 32c | 311.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.19 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…c361backed Over | 28c | 287$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07f…7bcfbacked Over | 28c | 279$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…ffe2backed Under | 72c | 261$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc533…fd77backed Under | 72c | 255$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x085a…55aabacked Over | 28c | 255$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…bd9fbacked Under | 72c | 252$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b17…3e08backed Under | 72c | 214$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82d…7199backed Over | 26c | 207.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.64 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 38c | 197$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.51 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b4…6b74backed Over | 28c | 161$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 40c | 92.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 54c | 76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 25c | 70.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 46c | 63.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52e…ac6dbacked Under | 32c | 61.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 71c | 61.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +195.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 51c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Under | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 42c | 51.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 73c | 49.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 42c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 67c | 43.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 53c | 40.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed Under | 54c | 29.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 73c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 55c | 27.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 43c | 25.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 59c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Under | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 70c | 16.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 7.5this page
- Lightning vs. CanucksLightning won
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Lightning vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.