TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chicago White Soxof New York Mets, Chicago White Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$446,778
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$486,035

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $446,778 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 211 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x684b…8409backed Chicago White Sox57c98,780$55,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,787.5326054.2%141 W · 119 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Mets43c72,519$31,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,183.131,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Chicago White Sox56c38,523$21,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,120.4860043.3%260 W · 340 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0fd…a7dabacked New York Mets46c34,783$16,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,0004153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab3…64afbacked New York Mets42c19,884$8,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,351.223145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets44c18,969$8,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,309.1510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked New York Mets55c11,415$6,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,247.932,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Chicago White Sox51c11,333$5,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,533.3343554%235 W · 200 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8853…c058backed New York Mets45c10,000$4,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,5202552%13 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox52c9,828$5,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,708.1511,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed New York Mets38c8,465$3,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,217.0625248.8%123 W · 129 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox55c6,634$3,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,994.725,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed New York Mets55c6,115$3,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,355.6795045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Chicago White Sox55c5,455$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.5523846.6%111 W · 127 L+0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Chicago White Sox54c5,203$2,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,393.323,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed New York Mets43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Chicago White Sox55c4,800$2,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,143.9964452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ca7…bf27backed New York Mets46c4,339$2,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0151464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets48c4,177$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,014.034,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed New York Mets52c4,149$2,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,136.715851.9%82 W · 76 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,759.9922047.7%105 W · 115 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66b2…0fdfbacked Chicago White Sox52c3,913$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,876.467745.5%35 W · 42 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37e2…4b92backed Chicago White Sox39c3,713$1,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,275.0112244.3%54 W · 68 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed New York Mets42c3,676$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.9317652.8%93 W · 83 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Chicago White Sox56c3,307$1,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,45532152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked New York Mets47c3,112$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.4419051.1%97 W · 93 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0160…c757backed New York Mets3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90523.8%2 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets52c2,870$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.318,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets61c2,570$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.654,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4453…dd3bbacked New York Mets78c2,553$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick69cpaid-43.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Chicago White Sox57c2,297$1,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.91,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xafee…881ebacked Chicago White Sox44c2,222$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.095642.9%24 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Chicago White Sox58c2,200$1,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.9844451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6451…b57abacked New York Mets46c2,105$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.3214841.2%61 W · 87 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x689f…259cbacked New York Mets47c2,054$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.599639.6%38 W · 58 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+0.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Chicago White Sox56c2,048$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.122,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73f6…a10abacked Chicago White Sox57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859.9917150.3%86 W · 85 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f0e…7397backed Chicago White Sox18c1,927$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,582.787847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets45c1,759$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.964,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Chicago White Sox55c1,756$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.2519453.6%104 W · 90 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed New York Mets42c1,620$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.9992046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e7…91a2backed New York Mets4c1,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60553.6%2 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e8…9490backed New York Mets4c1,477$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3420%0 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Chicago White Sox57c1,445$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.731,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox45c1,389$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.628,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked New York Mets45c1,091$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.781,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed New York Mets55c1,084$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.2679442.4%337 W · 457 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked New York Mets47c1,082$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.1458746%270 W · 317 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Chicago White Sox56c1,059$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.56,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e7…50d1backed New York Mets49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid+2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Chicago White Sox37c1,005$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.2427244.9%122 W · 150 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe176…0f99backed New York Mets1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104940.8%20 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Chicago White Sox57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43030647.4%145 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Chicago White Sox57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43029046.6%135 W · 155 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c56…68b2backed New York Mets42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x330b…9565backed New York Mets39c897.44$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed New York Mets45c888$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.686653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8fe…359dbacked New York Mets18c867.12$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.2612245.9%56 W · 66 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Mets42c866.64$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.993,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Chicago White Sox52c866.07$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.754643.5%20 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Chicago White Sox57c809.23$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35297944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed New York Mets50c775.53$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.2217548%84 W · 91 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd37b…3802backed New York Mets43c769.77$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3311266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+76.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked New York Mets46c652.4$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30094034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed New York Mets47c644.78$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.5234952.7%184 W · 165 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f0…9bb3backed New York Mets7c620$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.88440.5%34 W · 50 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8421…4e30backed New York Mets18c600$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1109036.7%33 W · 57 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets44c567.25$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.839,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked New York Mets42c527$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.341,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6597…b746backed New York Mets48c520.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25025351.8%131 W · 122 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Chicago White Sox53c502.01$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.951,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb46…48efbacked Chicago White Sox57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21513848.6%67 W · 71 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e73…ac97backed Chicago White Sox55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22511150.5%56 W · 55 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8370…cd4fbacked New York Mets43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Chicago White Sox56c454.46$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.7258352.1%304 W · 279 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ebb…2b75backed Chicago White Sox56c447.36$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.848148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad54…006abacked New York Mets46c442.41$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.5158060.5%351 W · 229 L+30.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago White Sox43c428.32$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.364,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f18…1ae2backed New York Mets48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002450%12 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked Chicago White Sox79c405$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.651747.1%8 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-29.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox70c404.1$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.158,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb43e…8200backed New York Mets43c353.88$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1722744.9%102 W · 125 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Chicago White Sox62c350.38$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.641,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Chicago White Sox59c340$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.49259.8%55 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42ab…0d2dbacked New York Mets45c337.78$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15211255.4%62 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed New York Mets47c333.45$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.6647852.3%250 W · 228 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed New York Mets42c322$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6848339.8%192 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets40c318.27$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.945,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Chicago White Sox41c315.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.435,12654.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L+231.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Chicago White Sox58c300$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12658652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47fc…973cbacked Chicago White Sox55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9698…2504backed New York Mets49c298$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.0210249%50 W · 52 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffae…adaebacked New York Mets46c289.97$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.3958943.1%254 W · 335 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd738…eeeebacked Chicago White Sox55c283.64$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.6410850.9%55 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked New York Mets42c266.92$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2216846.4%78 W · 90 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68cb…0000backed New York Mets48c265.21$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4748660.5%294 W · 192 L+40.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x94bb…02ccbacked Chicago White Sox57c250$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.524246.7%113 W · 129 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed New York Mets42c220$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.41,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de9…5289backed New York Mets64c219.03$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.1854945.4%249 W · 300 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed New York Mets46c218$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2891749.9%458 W · 459 L-3.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.