MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x347bee8d97deff3d259edaf8a8ca41059a7aec9562f310211c3583c8d05fcd02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,038
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,038 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 46c | 21,800$10,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,027.99 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 54c | 11,798$6,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,382.4 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed No | 54c | 4,047$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.62 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed No | 54c | 3,162$1,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.38 | 322 | 51.6%166 W · 156 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 2,912$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.29 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 44c | 2,435$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.5 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked No | 56c | 2,245$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.73 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 43c | 1,735$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.95 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 45c | 1,730$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.17 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 54c | 1,727$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.19 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 45c | 1,411$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.51 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 57c | 1,112$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked No | 54c | 915$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.9 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked No | 54c | 699.99$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 58c | 441.97$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.35 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1691…1e24backed No | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 43c | 438.6$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.6 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Yes | 45c | 404$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.44 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…409bbacked Yes | 46c | 395$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 56c | 338.46$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed No | 54c | 321$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.66 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 45c | 295.26$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.87 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 44c | 215.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…c3a0backed No | 54c | 190$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 56c | 178$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 45c | 175$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…3afabacked No | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9c…8927backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…f0b2backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 17c | 84.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed No | 56c | 22.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked No | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed No | 75c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago White Soxthis page
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.