MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43906ab14f746701ae4c62bcd80718408cdc6b8e635fc8c886eb51f059069b1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 67c | 59,354$39,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,674.33 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 33c | 47,976$15,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,143.7 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 6,905$2,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,557.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 2,567$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 2,132$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 37c | 1,933$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.98 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 1,059$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 45c | 949.2$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.06 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 328.31$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.61 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 57c | 176.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 41c | 175$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 33c | 165.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 45c | 135.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 126.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f5…698cbacked Under | 57c | 106.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 42c | 99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Over | 34c | 84.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 56c | 79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 40c | 74.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 57c | 74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Over | 34c | 70.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 43c | 49.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 42c | 47.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 36c | 41.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 51c | 38.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 64c | 34.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 64c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 48c | 30.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 55c | 26.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 38c | 26.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.