MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a420c664b0bc1f4bf4f6ad9379eb1049addf06f427ea298485ddc08b8d4dbca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 14,048$8,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,085.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 46c | 9,631$4,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,430.49 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 6,305$2,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,841.87 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 53c | 6,012$3,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,825.6 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Over | 54c | 3,700$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 52c | 2,365$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,135.05 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Under | 48c | 2,283$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,095.84 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 52c | 1,123$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.09 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 46c | 1,089$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.94 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Over | 54c | 999.99$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 39c | 944.58$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.2 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 894$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.18 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 50c | 841.85$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.44 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 730.04$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 60c | 619.07$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.31 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 597.1$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.08 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 390$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 53c | 371.37$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.13 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Under | 61c | 360.66$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 55c | 275.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.93 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 49c | 248$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.52 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 175.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 48c | 142$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 83.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 45c | 68.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.05 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Under | 48c | 65.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 47c | 57.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c78…7d67backed Over | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 53c | 48.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 52c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 54c | 36.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 58c | 33.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 42c | 33.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 55c | 25.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…230cbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 53cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 24.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed Under | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…241cbacked Over | 54c | 22.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 49c | 22.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 55c | 21.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Over | 52c | 20.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.