MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d3172dd18e0da3e10baeff9bcfb83f4f5436d26035d5bb44c11f8dfe79c2c50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 3,532$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,225.44 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Mets | 62c | 2,072$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.9 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets | 63c | 2,025$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 1,600$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets | 63c | 1,599$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.24 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 1,058$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.89 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets | 63c | 920$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.6 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed New York Mets | 63c | 885.2$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.68 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked New York Mets | 63c | 782.53$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 12c | 700.96$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked New York Mets | 65c | 358.43$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.8 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago White Sox | 36c | 305.36$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.43 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Chicago White Sox | 46c | 266.75$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.21 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe200…1b78backed New York Mets | 15c | 265$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +236.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Chicago White Sox | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 180$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 176.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…7017backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf15…a1febacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…09dcbacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 135.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.13 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Chicago White Sox | 38c | 135$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Chicago White Sox | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 95.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 82.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…6aaabacked Chicago White Sox | 38c | 81.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Chicago White Sox | 20c | 75.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed New York Mets | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed New York Mets | 64c | 55.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Chicago White Sox | 39c | 36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Chicago White Sox | 37c | 35.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…c168backed Chicago White Sox | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +141.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed New York Mets | 63c | 20.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed New York Mets | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Chicago White SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.