MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8094f6dc42f7b12e7f10868ebe2f1f49ea18a0bf49b90c4271e992f3b64f5b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 39c | 2,768$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed No | 60c | 1,501$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.4 | 127 | 59.1%75 W · 52 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…e0f2backed Yes | 40c | 1,243$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 61c | 1,148$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.82 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,110$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.19 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…667fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,075$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 40c | 838.69$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.73 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 60c | 816$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.4 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 39c | 751.27$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 42c | 698.54$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.43 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c817backed No | 61c | 544.99$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…9324backed No | 61c | 510.39$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 43c | 407$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.92 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 62c | 404.16$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.16 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…e183backed No | 61c | 358.19$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.19 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 61c | 270$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…f08abacked No | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 57c | 249$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.93 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0284…97f6backed No | 60c | 246.21$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 40c | 214$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Yes | 40c | 208$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 61c | 204.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 61c | 190.47$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked No | 59c | 187.11$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.72 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed No | 60c | 166.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 61c | 150$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 39c | 117.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…1306backed No | 61c | 86.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…e1c6backed No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 59c | 72.2$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 40c | 64.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 42c | 62.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked No | 57c | 61.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 278 | 52.2%145 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed No | 61c | 57.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 40c | 54.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188d…355cbacked Yes | 41c | 36.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d6…2dfdbacked Yes | 40c | 36.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…1098backed Yes | 40c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…66a3backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…8b50backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…f338backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlinsthis page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.