MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81809795568766f3b7dad39158b7e83a46333396e157475073be6c37982fe663
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 30c | 1,400$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,438 | 51%734 W · 704 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 835$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.5 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 17c | 688.61$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.64 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 25c | 640$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.11 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 77c | 589$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.84 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 79c | 581.73$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 2,148 | 51.3%1,102 W · 1,046 L | +50.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 307.43$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 280.92$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.27 | 1,671 | 49.1%820 W · 851 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Miami Marlins | 71c | 269.08$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 184 | 57.6%106 W · 78 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 223.68$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 1,970 | 53.1%1,047 W · 923 L | +45.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 30c | 219.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 25c | 198.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 25c | 191.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 24c | 166.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 95.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff0…2fbabacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 53.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 858 | 54.4%467 W · 391 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Boston Red Sox | 27c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2,150 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,071 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…fe6bbacked Miami Marlins | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…42c6backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 35.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 410 | 48.5%199 W · 211 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1,911 | 44.4%848 W · 1,063 L | -29.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Miami Marlins | 71c | 16.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 925 | 56.3%521 W · 404 L | +30.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.