MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fd0b3f923490e53611cb253846b4dd316ca9f313855199615aa7de18ff320bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Miami Marlins, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Miami Marlins | 20c | 14,135$2,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,822.97 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 78c | 6,664$5,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.72 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 23c | 6,662$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.67 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Boston Red Sox | 80c | 3,500$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 2,090$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.59 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Boston Red Sox | 80c | 2,048$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.6 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Boston Red Sox | 80c | 1,600$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 80c | 1,396$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.2 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Boston Red Sox | 80c | 1,010$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.04 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Boston Red Sox | 79c | 839.55$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.62 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Boston Red Sox | 80c | 532$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Boston Red Sox | 80c | 319$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Boston Red Sox | 78c | 308.92$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 256.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 248.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 231.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 22c | 209.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Boston Red Sox | 76c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1058…01c1backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 133$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…badabacked Boston Red Sox | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Miami Marlins | 25c | 89.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…ebcabacked Boston Red Sox | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Miami Marlins | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 246 | 44.7%110 W · 136 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 56.47$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Miami Marlins | 26c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 26.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 17.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.