MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x409c647d33df5071422a3c7049c626e87ffb35d4056b7026799bc2535781fe5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 16c | 9,671$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,123.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 73c | 4,061$2,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,982.77 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 26c | 2,644$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,944.79 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 938.38$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.96 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Miami Marlins | 75c | 803.02$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.15 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 728.78$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.03 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 452.38$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 432.73$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.31 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 28c | 377$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.64 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 323.95$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.13 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Miami Marlins | 11c | 290$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Boston Red Sox | 49c | 229.34$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.19 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 134.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Boston Red Sox | 22c | 128.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 79c | 119.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2636…8699backed Miami Marlins | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Miami Marlins | 12c | 117$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Miami Marlins | 10c | 105.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 121 | 28.9%35 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Miami Marlins | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 63.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 50.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Boston Red Sox | 41c | 45.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 41.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Boston Red Sox | 29c | 41.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 35.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Boston Red Sox | 40c | 34.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…f3aabacked Miami Marlins | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 32.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.