MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a32715584145d0dadb72c7b813884e9dc6d9f3b7de8aa4a553de65787bc884b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 63c | 4,307$2,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.11 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 34c | 3,516$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.73 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 2,921$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.69 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 40c | 2,909$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.68 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 41c | 2,415$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.02 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 42c | 2,259$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.93 | 1,003 | 44.6%447 W · 556 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 35c | 1,987$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.8 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 26c | 1,917$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.2 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 58c | 1,677$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.66 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 58c | 1,667$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.09 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 64c | 1,066$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.5 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 1,028$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.55 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 30c | 970.49$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.83 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…c5e1backed Under | 78c | 626.52$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.57 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 66c | 548.33$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.87 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e90…be2bbacked Under | 60c | 491.82$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…5696backed Over | 36c | 430.47$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 58c | 343.1$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 37c | 321$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.77 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 60c | 312.5$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 310$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Over | 38c | 275.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 28c | 248.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 240.67$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 60c | 219$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 41c | 200.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.37 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 55c | 174$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x288b…1fa5backed Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 38c | 165.19$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 800 | 52%416 W · 384 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 24c | 160.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 58c | 130.04$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Over | 17c | 118.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 71c | 106.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 61c | 90.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…299abacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 38c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 48c | 54.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…e04fbacked Over | 52c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 38c | 50.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 34c | 47.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 38c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 42c | 45.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 60c | 40.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 75c | 39.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Over | 29c | 34.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 41c | 32.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 38c | 31.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Over | 41c | 29.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Over | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 38c | 27.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 634 | 54.3%344 W · 290 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 64c | 23.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 52c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 416 | 48.8%203 W · 213 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 67c | 19.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 73c | 17.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 356 | 58.1%207 W · 149 L | +26.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.