Earnings · resolved market
Will SpaceX (SPCX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x756419dad9c009963683a7658b8806734a5699c490b39ccb7effa1fbbac2ac73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 0c | 29,575$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 67c | 9,010$5,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,995.78 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 60c | 5,955$3,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,560.64 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 29c | 4,396$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,132.11 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…e830backed Yes | 30c | 3,772$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…5932backed Yes | 42c | 3,330$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.17 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 42c | 2,867$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491e…667fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 39c | 1,403$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 64c | 703.31$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.56 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 50c | 637.37$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…8f4cbacked Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…21cfbacked Yes | 49c | 404.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7c…eca0backed Yes | 34c | 400$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d4…b3d3backed Yes | 37c | 367.44$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5400…1342backed Yes | 35c | 364.63$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d5…1343backed Yes | 58c | 333$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 59c | 332.08$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.89 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 33c | 301.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fed…395abacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fe…6286backed No | 75c | 255.09$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 40c | 253.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 247.4$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.55 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 245.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.55 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 64c | 223.36$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.83 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfef…d4d6backed No | 47c | 213.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 38c | 203$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 29c | 170.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.91 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 36c | 151.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 46c | 149.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 149.9$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0f…e262backed Yes | 38c | 149.81$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…398bbacked No | 70c | 144.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x528a…12f1backed Yes | 37c | 119.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…c16bbacked Yes | 36c | 118.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 96.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked No | 66c | 80.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…e071backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 72.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 69c | 71.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…62aebacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a88…7190backed Yes | 36c | 64.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed No | 75c | 63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb33…467cbacked Yes | 39c | 60.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30c5…8511backed Yes | 58c | 52.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…6c76backed Yes | 38c | 52.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…1041backed Yes | 36c | 51.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebbf…cf44backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…a221backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…e7aabacked Yes | 38c | 49.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb64…ec3abacked Yes | 37c | 42.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…49d4backed Yes | 48c | 40.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98a4…b64dbacked No | 65c | 40.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bf…95d3backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…2fc1backed No | 74c | 38.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…9520backed No | 73c | 37.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1be…cb09backed Yes | 37c | 33.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6d…55ccbacked No | 70c | 33.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6378…da24backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 50c | 29.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +165.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…db87backed No | 66c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209f…0eb4backed Yes | 58c | 21.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 67c | 21.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7976…f3dcbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x673a…9d3bbacked No | 72c | 18.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.