TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LYONof LYON, Shopify Rebellion
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$254,545
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$298,623

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,545 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed Shopify Rebellion14c40,637$5,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,647.1853750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4ac…9722backed Shopify Rebellion8c12,500$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009944.4%44 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked LYON76c8,700$6,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1012,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Shopify Rebellion10c8,080$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.7548149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed LYON75c8,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00057957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed LYON72c7,242$5,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.2111367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Shopify Rebellion3c6,122$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.92,49739.9%996 W · 1,501 L-75.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…c175backed Shopify Rebellion26c6,104$1,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,587.1540726.8%109 W · 298 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed Shopify Rebellion25c6,039$1,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,526.7830843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed LYON75c5,973$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.251,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Shopify Rebellion24c5,482$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.081,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Shopify Rebellion25c4,828$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.320748.8%101 W · 106 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Shopify Rebellion21c4,192$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.141,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Shopify Rebellion26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04030321.8%66 W · 237 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Shopify Rebellion28c3,556$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.711,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x515d…0340backed LYON74c3,503$2,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.0134558.3%201 W · 144 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed Shopify Rebellion25c3,235$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.5640933.7%138 W · 271 L-29.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ef9…3d08backed LYON76c2,550$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.9110246.1%47 W · 55 L-15.5wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-25.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Shopify Rebellion10c2,500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25064247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked LYON74c2,268$1,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.131,48250%741 W · 741 L+65.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Shopify Rebellion25c2,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50039851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed LYON76c1,963$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.661,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54ea…f74abacked LYON72c1,952$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.5710243.1%44 W · 58 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Shopify Rebellion26c1,913$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked LYON75c1,809$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.381,49054.6%813 W · 677 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Shopify Rebellion28c1,802$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.5623152.4%121 W · 110 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa160…442bbacked Shopify Rebellion22c1,781$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.871526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb94…243cbacked Shopify Rebellion25c1,705$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.146540%26 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb039…c6d9backed Shopify Rebellion23c1,608$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.9116451.2%84 W · 80 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf56d…c3d9backed Shopify Rebellion7c1,544$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.792040%8 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Shopify Rebellion25c1,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3751,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed LYON77c1,387$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.131,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked LYON74c1,350$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.0564749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Shopify Rebellion13c1,222$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.91,09638.9%426 W · 670 L-47.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Shopify Rebellion24c1,161$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.5744538.2%170 W · 275 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked LYON75c1,149$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.3798956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a01…bc5ebacked LYON78c1,095$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.934558.6%202 W · 143 L+16.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaf7…be9bbacked Shopify Rebellion9c1,068$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018844.7%84 W · 104 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd967…1409backed LYON73c995.59$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.8112160.3%73 W · 48 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed LYON78c977$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.9433856.2%190 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c7f…12d5backed Shopify Rebellion26c936$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.235554.5%30 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66b2…0fdfbacked LYON75c933.33$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.3331849.7%158 W · 160 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked LYON78c919$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.1835659%210 W · 146 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa453…b665backed Shopify Rebellion16c905.49$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.443537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed LYON76c882.96$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.712,15253.3%1,147 W · 1,005 L+58.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7843…7f7dbacked Shopify Rebellion21c878$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.2815240.1%61 W · 91 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed LYON71c861.05$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.72,18733.3%729 W · 1,458 L-71.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Shopify Rebellion24c843$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.554134.8%188 W · 353 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Shopify Rebellion25c800$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20049549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Shopify Rebellion13c753.1$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9575630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Shopify Rebellion26c750$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1951,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5acf…ead4backed Shopify Rebellion28c719.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016146%74 W · 87 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Shopify Rebellion6c700$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4366116.5%109 W · 552 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked LYON75c674$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.911,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked LYON75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6722250.5%112 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c73…6dafbacked LYON75c658.33$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.5852065.4%340 W · 180 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked LYON76c647$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.2811657.8%67 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked LYON76c647$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.2811357.5%65 W · 48 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked LYON69c636.26$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.242,67235.7%954 W · 1,718 L-153.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Shopify Rebellion7c632.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5945657.9%264 W · 192 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Shopify Rebellion25c618$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0517943.6%78 W · 101 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed LYON76c590.78$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.792,49047.3%1,179 W · 1,311 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed Shopify Rebellion26c543$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.1819041.6%79 W · 111 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed LYON76c542.58$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.2249847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a99…51bbbacked LYON75c533.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3382650%413 W · 413 L+3.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Shopify Rebellion25c529.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.596250.1%482 W · 480 L+1.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb627…2d13backed LYON76c526.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.3251552.6%271 W · 244 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Shopify Rebellion25c509.9$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.51,91742.3%810 W · 1,107 L-44.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71f5…1aecbacked Shopify Rebellion13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6521828.4%62 W · 156 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Shopify Rebellion24c487.48$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.761,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Shopify Rebellion24c466.67$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11295951.3%492 W · 467 L+42.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed LYON69c444$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.7517148%82 W · 89 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77c1…1527backed Shopify Rebellion25c442.72$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.689351.6%48 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcefd…d6aabacked Shopify Rebellion24c430.34$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046429.7%19 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ea…ea62backed Shopify Rebellion5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208648.8%42 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked LYON76c399.99$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9619758.9%116 W · 81 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed Shopify Rebellion25c399.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b7…fff9backed Shopify Rebellion5c399.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055010.4%57 W · 493 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f8…7fa1backed LYON76c394.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7477246.2%357 W · 415 L+18.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed LYON76c392$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8458850.5%297 W · 291 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed LYON76c350$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8496054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9227…7cedbacked Shopify Rebellion26c346.15$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9055347%260 W · 293 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed LYON75c333.33$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3365063.2%411 W · 239 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62e2…7b24backed LYON72c333.33$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.336462.5%40 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0146…5ba0backed Shopify Rebellion28c323.35$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.545932.2%19 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a76…29dcbacked LYON74c303.16$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.8213764.2%88 W · 49 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Shopify Rebellion4c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1338339.7%152 W · 231 L-10.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed LYON74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7896149.9%480 W · 481 L+4.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Shopify Rebellion24c291.67$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7052441%215 W · 309 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fdb…7857backed LYON74c286.49$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.498373.5%61 W · 22 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed Shopify Rebellion5c285$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.251,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked LYON72c276.46$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.4626551.7%137 W · 128 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6e0…413fbacked LYON75c266.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.677062.9%44 W · 26 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Shopify Rebellion25c255.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6422748%109 W · 118 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14d…45d1backed LYON76c250$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6013549.6%67 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f38…a0edbacked LYON75c238.67$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.676852.9%36 W · 32 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Shopify Rebellion27c230$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.11,30147.2%614 W · 687 L-32.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56a2…aa49backed LYON76c216.39$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.931978.9%15 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick65cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Shopify Rebellion24c211.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.891,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6fa…ac8fbacked Shopify Rebellion29c206.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6063248.3%305 W · 327 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.