TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Flyers vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Flyersof Flyers, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,194,701
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,244,609

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,194,701 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 627 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Maple Leafs55c230,148$126,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126,740.8919848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Maple Leafs52c180,030$94,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,354.3240351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Flyers46c131,247$60,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,935.848545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Maple Leafs54c68,432$37,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,050.991,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Flyers45c40,893$18,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,414.856152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Flyers45c30,940$13,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,01748549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Flyers45c23,794$10,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,0771,19050.7%603 W · 587 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Maple Leafs54c20,491$11,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,118.9461950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1deb…472fbacked Maple Leafs0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203554.3%19 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebbb…4214backed Maple Leafs54c14,785$8,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,009.0712835.9%46 W · 82 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Maple Leafs49c13,550$6,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,639.4844848.9%219 W · 229 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x221d…e800backed Flyers47c10,860$5,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,795.176657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid0%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Maple Leafs54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,4003661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Flyers47c9,928$4,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,295.7440356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Maple Leafs56c8,992$5,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,055.221233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-41.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Maple Leafs53c8,621$4,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,605.571,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Maple Leafs55c8,512$4,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,688.4989355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Flyers45c6,906$3,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,781.551,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Flyers47c5,978$2,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,195.6439344.8%176 W · 217 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b90…f361backed Flyers55c5,658$3,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,547.92365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Flyers46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,699.9989547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Maple Leafs55c4,981$2,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,739.294057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d4…38d6backed Maple Leafs5c4,221$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.892222.7%5 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+79%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Flyers46c4,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,16022747.6%108 W · 119 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44d6…9858backed Flyers44c4,000$1,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,24029146.7%136 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Maple Leafs55c4,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2008650%43 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Flyers46c4,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,159.9539752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Maple Leafs54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.934440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc43…96d3backed Maple Leafs55c3,948$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,171.162951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa464…252dbacked Maple Leafs55c3,747$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,046.65875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+50.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Flyers45c3,745$1,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.5117057.1%97 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Maple Leafs50c3,500$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75062951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Maple Leafs55c3,454$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.779350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Maple Leafs54c3,211$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,734.1545751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Maple Leafs66c3,031$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.4585464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Flyers46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62027048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Maple Leafs56c2,938$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.6430259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Flyers45c2,926$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,601.1391653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fbe…b84fbacked Maple Leafs54c2,778$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50018258.2%106 W · 76 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa29b…bac5backed Flyers45c2,700$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+45.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f30…736bbacked Maple Leafs55c2,700$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Maple Leafs56c2,641$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.353,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Maple Leafs55c2,625$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,450.4721754.8%119 W · 98 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65f0…6ea4backed Maple Leafs54c2,613$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.02250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…30c9backed Maple Leafs54c2,574$1,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,389.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Flyers34c2,542$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.711,10752%576 W · 531 L+63.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Flyers45c2,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,37584953.8%457 W · 392 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Flyers45c2,467$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.941,20260.1%722 W · 480 L+51.9wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Flyers44c2,378$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.562,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Flyers44c2,300$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,287.9883652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Maple Leafs54c2,288$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.552050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Maple Leafs54c2,269$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.6627850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Maple Leafs54c2,222$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.8891945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Flyers46c2,200$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.9915145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Maple Leafs57c2,166$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.941,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Maple Leafs54c2,143$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.4460249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Maple Leafs56c2,098$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.0939751.1%203 W · 194 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x167d…cf09backed Flyers49c2,030$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Maple Leafs54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.9963249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Maple Leafs53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.971,08745.1%490 W · 597 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Flyers45c1,975$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.5811537.4%43 W · 72 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Flyers46c1,882$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.014957.1%28 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a27…e9dabacked Flyers46c1,879$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.261471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick47cpaid+56.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1a9d…330ebacked Flyers47c1,874$881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.232100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+115.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97a5…134abacked Maple Leafs54c1,874$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.9640%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Flyers48c1,851$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.7989636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4738…df78backed Flyers69c1,793$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5585735.1%20 W · 37 L-13.5wins-0.24per pick59cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Maple Leafs54c1,685$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.3243548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Flyers44c1,626$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.362,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Flyers46c1,576$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.0714142.6%60 W · 81 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff84…b0e8backed Flyers47c1,574$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Maple Leafs41c1,564$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.256750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Maple Leafs55c1,530$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.495049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Maple Leafs53c1,528$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.8433243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9056…9754backed Flyers45c1,381$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.745100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Flyers46c1,300$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70227150.2%136 W · 135 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Maple Leafs56c1,255$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7004634.8%16 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a43…da23backed Flyers47c1,240$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.24100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+108.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bf2…5359backed Flyers47c1,226$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f64…a0fabacked Flyers46c1,155$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.431442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cc5…03fbbacked Flyers47c1,148$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0acc…9dc1backed Maple Leafs54c1,111$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60025052.8%132 W · 118 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe19a…abafbacked Flyers45c1,100$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.9913053.8%70 W · 60 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Flyers49c1,075$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.19258.7%54 W · 38 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Flyers60c1,042$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.128652.4%150 W · 136 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Maple Leafs55c1,040$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57286649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc1b…3b5bbacked Flyers46c1,038$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.8212058.3%70 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Flyers46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54012355.3%68 W · 55 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf020…ae69backed Maple Leafs54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.87728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Flyers45c999.99$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55530552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Maple Leafs53c999.99$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5309157.1%52 W · 39 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Flyers44c999.97$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.9842847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Maple Leafs53c991$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.2383149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42ef…1576backed Maple Leafs54c983.33$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5312157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc852…2ec1backed Flyers46c979.93$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Flyers45c962.64$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.8186549.1%425 W · 440 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Flyers46c933.04$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.0411950.4%60 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce50…b747backed Maple Leafs54c925.93$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008756.3%49 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49fa…f904backed Flyers46c921.9$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.123636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f72…0841backed Maple Leafs54c910.22$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.528253.7%44 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.