NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x325e73f3a6e279a35fb1442eee149054fe8cec0845ef864de38154eb774aad26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 3,403$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.97 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 58c | 3,290$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,908 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8230…5121backed Over | 4c | 2,146$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 5c | 1,461$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 17c | 918.15$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 448.28$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 42c | 221.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.33 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 35c | 138.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 37c | 107.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…d306backed Over | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Under | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 32c | 77.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…99d0backed Under | 43c | 76.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 32c | 67.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Under | 74c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…56c6backed Over | 58c | 44.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf564…a382backed Over | 57c | 39.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1d…32fabacked Over | 57c | 37.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 61c | 36.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 24.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. Maple LeafsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.