NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4306f1b988fa541694e2bab88d94375303d10a2366ffbafdf5f7c7ad79d7267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,980
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 19c | 5,048$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.12 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…78fdbacked Under | 22c | 5,005$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Under | 19c | 3,961$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.52 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…eca3backed Under | 51c | 3,105$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.55 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 63c | 2,853$1,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.02 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 43c | 2,123$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.41 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 51c | 1,861$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.96 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 50c | 1,775$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.05 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 19c | 1,769$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.46 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Under | 19c | 1,474$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 1,180$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.54 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 43c | 861.45$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.68 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 62c | 806.77$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 48c | 703.8$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.65 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ce…5975backed Under | 19c | 626.32$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 616.3$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.08 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 52c | 532.35$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…2408backed Under | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 4cpaid | +1,500%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 73c | 497.1$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.26 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4b…f7d2backed Under | 5c | 476$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +1,972.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 68c | 461.66$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 16c | 451.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 75c | 430$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.77 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bee…aa9ebacked Under | 19c | 292$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 48c | 286.44$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.75 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1e…5a2abacked Under | 5c | 273.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa80…f251backed Under | 40c | 250.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 16c | 192.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…dedebacked Under | 19c | 131.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Under | 19c | 131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Over | 46c | 109.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…20dfbacked Under | 48c | 105.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Over | 52c | 96.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 48c | 95.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 57c | 82.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 54 | 72.2%39 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 19c | 60.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Under | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 32c | 55.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Under | 18c | 54.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 33c | 52.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5409…9fb2backed Under | 62c | 45.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 49c | 37.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 72c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5this page
- Flyers vs. Maple LeafsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.