NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b93e6ac1e38065f5196a8eb7f659928f19cf1cbb5a13b1873f1ec3f4272458d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ac…5befbacked Under | 54c | 16,500$8,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,590 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a95…000bbacked Over | 46c | 16,500$7,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,590 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 55c | 1,142$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.74 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 2c | 1,001$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Under | 72c | 733.16$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.29 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 55c | 518$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.1 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 23c | 449.71$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.14 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed Under | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 486 | 54.1%263 W · 223 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf053…3939backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 55c | 219.49$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 179.13$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1093…d547backed Under | 59c | 170.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 27c | 157.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec2e…7913backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 55c | 144.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 223 | 52.9%118 W · 105 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ef…cdd9backed Under | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 22c | 126.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 11c | 124.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 32c | 123.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 117.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 113.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 55c | 113.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Over | 45c | 91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dc…ab58backed Over | 45c | 76.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 46c | 49.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a50…09f4backed Under | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…2494backed Under | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Over | 46c | 40.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Over | 45c | 38.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 261 | 36%94 W · 167 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…81a3backed Under | 69c | 36.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed Under | 67c | 34.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf10…557ebacked Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d4…23e8backed Under | 52c | 29.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa307…8ea3backed Under | 55c | 28.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked Under | 69c | 26.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…d3d1backed Under | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…ba79backed Under | 75c | 17.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5this page
- Flyers vs. Maple LeafsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 4.5Over won
- Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.