TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Shifters - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Shifters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$782,690
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$966,707

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $782,690 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 510 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed Natus Vincere58c101,688$58,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,089.822451.8%116 W · 108 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Shifters42c70,845$29,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,647.8925546.3%118 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Shifters42c33,327$13,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,962.353750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c7…f0a7backed Natus Vincere61c24,318$14,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,547.7913061.5%80 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Natus Vincere62c21,500$13,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,076.1148149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed Shifters51c21,125$10,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,752.2511367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Natus Vincere54c18,518$9,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,560.6653255.1%293 W · 239 L+23.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Shifters34c13,669$4,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,666.051,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Natus Vincere55c10,919$5,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,959.0181143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Shifters44c9,253$4,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,093.561,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Shifters43c8,344$3,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,546.751,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Shifters43c7,600$3,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,245.622,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Shifters43c7,245$3,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,132.551,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Shifters41c7,000$2,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8709534.7%33 W · 62 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed Shifters41c6,656$2,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,745.7533856.2%190 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Shifters52c6,480$3,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,386.771,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed Natus Vincere56c6,128$3,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,694.7725949%127 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb496…1f45backed Shifters46c6,000$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7605740.4%23 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16e…bd58backed Natus Vincere47c5,949$2,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,162.6916043.1%69 W · 91 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked Shifters40c5,256$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.1228642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Natus Vincere74c5,233$3,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,380.5857246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4421…80d2backed Shifters1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501242.4%3 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-95.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Shifters42c4,980$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,086.585442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3928…1d3fbacked Shifters7c4,615$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+415%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Shifters49c4,541$2,225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,224.9945148.1%217 W · 234 L-12.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1720…3c09backed Shifters45c4,514$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,028.37966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Natus Vincere53c4,239$2,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,004.3769041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Natus Vincere58c4,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6801,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Natus Vincere53c3,984$2,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.6189347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Natus Vincere59c3,822$2,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,548.091,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea58…0308backed Natus Vincere48c3,634$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,905.857431.1%23 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere51c3,629$1,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,795.221,37937.7%520 W · 859 L-43.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed Natus Vincere59c3,444$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.2623445.7%107 W · 127 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Shifters59c3,415$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00036943.9%162 W · 207 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bb4…87b5backed Shifters58c3,100$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.94151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed Shifters1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed Natus Vincere62c2,824$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.3819748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Shifters51c2,806$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.632343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x531b…32b6backed Shifters36c2,794$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.18540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Natus Vincere58c2,768$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.141,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed08…e082backed Natus Vincere64c2,481$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.419860.1%119 W · 79 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Shifters40c2,280$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.641,93048.2%930 W · 1,000 L+24.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Natus Vincere59c2,266$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$936.511,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere57c2,250$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.51,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Natus Vincere68c2,236$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.9728544.9%128 W · 157 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Shifters36c2,223$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.4632234.5%111 W · 211 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Natus Vincere59c2,200$1,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.9962649.8%312 W · 314 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Shifters41c2,116$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.863344.5%282 W · 351 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Natus Vincere59c2,109$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.691,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Shifters43c2,076$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.4215648.7%76 W · 80 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Natus Vincere49c2,024$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.991,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Shifters41c2,018$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.5634340.5%139 W · 204 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Shifters48c2,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec8…1d07backed Shifters52c1,923$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012354.5%67 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed Natus Vincere45c1,714$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.716646.4%77 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked Natus Vincere62c1,676$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.1826765.9%176 W · 91 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Natus Vincere59c1,633$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.491,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x092b…614ebacked Natus Vincere62c1,604$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.8815644.2%69 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4873…15babacked Shifters50c1,602$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80117852.8%94 W · 84 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd29b…96adbacked Natus Vincere75c1,600$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40016366.3%108 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Shifters41c1,525$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.7832145.5%146 W · 175 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Shifters48c1,501$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.572,49047.3%1,179 W · 1,311 L-31.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ed…b819backed Natus Vincere61c1,500$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.276866.2%45 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Shifters42c1,500$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.991,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Natus Vincere50c1,494$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.261,09638.9%426 W · 670 L-47.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked Shifters40c1,490$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.7633457.8%193 W · 141 L+18.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Shifters49c1,458$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.0332045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Shifters45c1,457$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.22,30339.4%907 W · 1,396 L-82.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Natus Vincere59c1,403$828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.411,20335.7%430 W · 773 L+6.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Natus Vincere60c1,400$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Natus Vincere59c1,384$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.635949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Natus Vincere56c1,384$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.91,47648.3%713 W · 763 L+45.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b5a…1457backed Natus Vincere72c1,383$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.7536643.7%160 W · 206 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Natus Vincere44c1,364$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.6422953.7%123 W · 106 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Natus Vincere58c1,328$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.0838963%245 W · 144 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Shifters48c1,322$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.4962942.4%267 W · 362 L-3.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Shifters43c1,307$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.7698956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ced…0feebacked Natus Vincere60c1,295$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.0576955%423 W · 346 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed Shifters38c1,293$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.3730843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Shifters16c1,293$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.2722838.6%88 W · 140 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Natus Vincere59c1,269$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.471,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Shifters43c1,219$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5221,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Shifters39c1,200$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46828448.6%138 W · 146 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Shifters47c1,175$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.041,53654.8%842 W · 694 L+75.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Natus Vincere64c1,170$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.1819259.9%115 W · 77 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x272d…bc2fbacked Natus Vincere44c1,136$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.2428353.4%151 W · 132 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Natus Vincere44c1,134$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$635.0923749.4%117 W · 120 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe896…a4c7backed Shifters45c1,101$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50027962.4%174 W · 105 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Natus Vincere44c1,100$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61657957.9%335 W · 244 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked Natus Vincere45c1,087$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.9535659%210 W · 146 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed Natus Vincere62c1,046$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.9148157.6%277 W · 204 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeef…92b7backed Natus Vincere74c1,010$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.6115541.3%64 W · 91 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Shifters48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48083460.8%507 W · 327 L+44.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Natus Vincere50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50063546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked Shifters43c999.98$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42516851.2%86 W · 82 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515d…0340backed Natus Vincere49c990.27$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.9134558.3%201 W · 144 L+17.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Shifters35c928.24$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.942,67235.7%954 W · 1,718 L-153.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Natus Vincere53c919.47$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.1530554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Natus Vincere44c905.44$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.4451852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Shifters2c899.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,5173.3%50 W · 1,467 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.