Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbd764919a61c283dd1c04f0b42b2b9a67035327279b5890f4adc83ec2a31e99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Shifters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x282f…7c4ebacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 10,447$4,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,378.97 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Shifters | 58c | 5,078$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945.24 | 969 | 48.6%471 W · 498 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 5,000$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,903.33 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b1…2687backed Shifters | 61c | 2,010$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.08 | 308 | 43.2%133 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Shifters | 61c | 1,410$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.06 | 2,521 | 47.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L | -34.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Shifters | 63c | 1,361$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Shifters | 58c | 1,056$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.31 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…0f24backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…e96ebacked Shifters | 61c | 983.61$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 174 | 52.3%91 W · 83 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…9c8fbacked Shifters | 61c | 983.61$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Shifters | 61c | 819.51$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.9 | 302 | 53.6%162 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Shifters | 61c | 818.03$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 247 | 50.2%124 W · 123 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…1224backed Shifters | 58c | 638$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.04 | 239 | 40.2%96 W · 143 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.24 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Natus Vincere | 37c | 512$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.56 | 227 | 48%109 W · 118 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x559b…4959backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 493.33$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 236 | 45.3%107 W · 129 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Shifters | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,014 | 47.6%483 W · 531 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 512 | 56.1%287 W · 225 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…238bbacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 228 | 40.8%93 W · 135 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 470$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.5 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Shifters | 65c | 470$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 2,836 | 41.4%1,175 W · 1,661 L | -12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Natus Vincere | 38c | 431.95$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.29 | 2,984 | 44.5%1,329 W · 1,655 L | -94.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e9…caedbacked Shifters | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…5478backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 401.14$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.72 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Shifters | 60c | 350$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 963 | 50.2%483 W · 480 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1636…977bbacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 350$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…ef07backed Shifters | 63c | 317.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 555 | 45%250 W · 305 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Shifters | 61c | 308.2$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 520 | 46%239 W · 281 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…4389backed Shifters | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 664 | 59.8%397 W · 267 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Shifters | 61c | 284.92$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.8 | 322 | 53.1%171 W · 151 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Shifters | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 655 | 63.2%414 W · 241 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x916a…a570backed Shifters | 60c | 248.33$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56a2…aa49backed Shifters | 62c | 247.98$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.75 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb550…2799backed Shifters | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 226.35$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.35 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…e415backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 210$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…5bfdbacked Shifters | 61c | 207.56$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.61 | 278 | 48.2%134 W · 144 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 202$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.12 | 358 | 48.9%175 W · 183 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a30bbacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 156 | 24.4%38 W · 118 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…63fcbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…b23ebacked Shifters | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,049 | 44.6%468 W · 581 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 167.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ca…2737backed Shifters | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 64.3%72 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 154.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Shifters | 61c | 131$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.91 | 194 | 37.6%73 W · 121 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Natus Vincere | 46c | 125.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 1,004 | 54.5%547 W · 457 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Shifters | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 251 | 42.6%107 W · 144 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 265 | 41.9%111 W · 154 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked Shifters | 58c | 103.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 149 | 36.9%55 W · 94 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Shifters | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,343 | 49%658 W · 685 L | -26.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 99.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 822 | 60.9%501 W · 321 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Shifters | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Shifters | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 228 | 55.7%127 W · 101 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 75.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 1,181 | 66%780 W · 401 L | +70.1wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked Shifters | 28c | 75.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Shifters | 56c | 70.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 405 | 51.1%207 W · 198 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5061…4b02backed Shifters | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Shifters | 59c | 59.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 2,367 | 31.9%756 W · 1,611 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce41…c2c2backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 53.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2f…465cbacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 52.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…51f3backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 50.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 213 | 44.6%95 W · 118 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 619 | 46.5%288 W · 331 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…8259backed Natus Vincere | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 383 | 44.6%171 W · 212 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…832ebacked Shifters | 57c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Shifters | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…16e6backed Natus Vincere | 37c | 38.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 37.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 527 | 50.5%266 W · 261 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked Shifters | 61c | 35.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Shifters | 67c | 31.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe8…1edbbacked Shifters | 63c | 30.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 26.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2,540 | 39.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L | -79.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Shifters | 59c | 25.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1,239 | 37.3%462 W · 777 L | -39.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Shifters | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179d…26abbacked Shifters | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 543 | 29.8%162 W · 381 L | -19.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Shifters | 64c | 23.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 55%148 W · 121 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…40b0backed Shifters | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Navi (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular SeasonNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Shifters - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Shifters - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.