TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, Shifters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$640,554
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$741,846

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $640,554 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 412 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed Natus Vincere62c60,770$37,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,290.222451.8%116 W · 108 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4421…80d2backed Shifters0c40,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301242.4%3 W · 121 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-95.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Shifters41c36,300$14,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,776.953750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Natus Vincere58c33,148$19,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,909.7125546.3%118 W · 137 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Shifters44c27,890$12,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,185.7357246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Natus Vincere57c20,000$11,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,519.961,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed Shifters41c18,221$7,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,423.5811367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Shifters41c15,300$6,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,273.0481143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed Shifters38c15,000$5,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,713.166556.9%37 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Natus Vincere62c11,800$7,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,463.282,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Shifters45c11,576$5,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,173.7530321.8%66 W · 237 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c7…f0a7backed Shifters45c11,020$5,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,011.6213061.5%80 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d83…d89cbacked Natus Vincere59c10,986$6,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,504.2525453.5%136 W · 118 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed Shifters33c10,829$3,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,524.7323445.7%107 W · 127 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Natus Vincere57c10,000$5,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,303.2253355%293 W · 240 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere58c8,254$4,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,438.881,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere52c8,073$4,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,866.785442.7%365 W · 489 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Shifters41c7,250$2,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9501,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed Shifters41c6,654$2,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,732.2919748.2%95 W · 102 L+15.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked Shifters37c6,500$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40517444.8%78 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Shifters5c6,284$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.261,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Shifters38c6,000$2,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,309.997642.1%32 W · 44 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Natus Vincere50c5,788$2,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,899.271,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Shifters46c5,059$2,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,352.3848149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb4…87b5backed Natus Vincere56c4,786$2,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,093.374151.2%21 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere60c4,477$2,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.351,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed Natus Vincere59c4,256$2,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740.8428859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked Shifters46c4,225$1,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,943.6828642.7%122 W · 164 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed Shifters41c4,078$1,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.61,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Natus Vincere59c3,887$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5771,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked Natus Vincere62c3,535$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.8666559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xea58…0308backed Shifters44c3,411$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.57431.1%23 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed Shifters44c3,374$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.3916646.4%77 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked Natus Vincere62c3,173$1,953 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.4526765.9%176 W · 91 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ed…ee18backed Shifters48c3,127$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5004242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Natus Vincere60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2001,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Natus Vincere60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20089943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed Shifters1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Natus Vincere75c2,812$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.7789347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere59c2,300$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9431,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Shifters21c2,267$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.5221352.6%112 W · 101 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Shifters32c2,206$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9340637.7%153 W · 253 L-8.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Natus Vincere63c2,181$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.0198956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed Shifters46c2,174$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed Natus Vincere56c2,132$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.0626349%129 W · 134 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Natus Vincere60c2,098$1,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.321,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e24…4fabbacked Shifters30c2,027$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.133857.7%195 W · 143 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked Natus Vincere60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Shifters29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58063546.6%296 W · 339 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Shifters31c2,000$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.6983560.8%508 W · 327 L+45.1wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Natus Vincere52c2,000$1,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$957.971,20835.8%432 W · 776 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75dc…6a1dbacked Shifters7c1,953$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7229331.4%92 W · 201 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe59f…0d08backed Natus Vincere76c1,891$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.129941.4%41 W · 58 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Shifters40c1,814$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.5645248%217 W · 235 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb3…4d75backed Natus Vincere58c1,729$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.7860855.8%339 W · 269 L-14.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a0c…6ca7backed Natus Vincere60c1,655$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6627054.3%38 W · 32 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed Shifters37c1,556$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.613947.5%66 W · 73 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere61c1,530$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.746258.4%270 W · 192 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Shifters44c1,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66032145.5%146 W · 175 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Natus Vincere62c1,500$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5701,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Natus Vincere62c1,477$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.971,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked Shifters39c1,465$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.0423152.4%121 W · 110 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85b8…0935backed Shifters41c1,463$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-38.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ec8…1d07backed Natus Vincere70c1,436$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.2912454%67 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Natus Vincere66c1,409$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.672,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacc1…3ce0backed Shifters24c1,404$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.914911.4%17 W · 132 L-9.3wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7b7…c49bbacked Natus Vincere63c1,400$877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.3616253.7%87 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Natus Vincere60c1,306$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.721,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Shifters47c1,289$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60060354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c7f…12d5backed Shifters40c1,275$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.995554.5%30 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Shifters46c1,266$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.381,05628.5%301 W · 755 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked Shifters40c1,262$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50026551.7%137 W · 128 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1af1…8bd4backed Natus Vincere63c1,240$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c1c…7980backed Natus Vincere57c1,226$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.175949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Natus Vincere63c1,214$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.4739162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Natus Vincere59c1,200$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4978063.8%51 W · 29 L+12.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+41.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5e69…7f76backed Shifters40c1,200$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48028448.6%138 W · 146 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Natus Vincere60c1,167$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.661,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Natus Vincere60c1,115$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.911,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Shifters45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a30bbacked Shifters28c1,110$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.215624.4%38 W · 118 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed Natus Vincere57c1,058$603 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.079255.4%51 W · 41 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Shifters38c1,042$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Shifters30c1,022$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.962,20233.3%733 W · 1,469 L-72.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Natus Vincere60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked Natus Vincere60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4005637.5%21 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Natus Vincere57c999.97$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.9914753.1%78 W · 69 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d87…e214backed Natus Vincere71c991.79$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.7926661.7%164 W · 102 L+22.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x483d…69e5backed Shifters26c979.99$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.7914623.3%34 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Natus Vincere59c970.48$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.5915648.7%76 W · 80 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Natus Vincere61c966.35$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.9985849.5%425 W · 433 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Shifters47c907.35$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42269041.3%285 W · 405 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Shifters39c900$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3481,39943.7%612 W · 787 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked Shifters33c855$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.1517738.4%68 W · 109 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Shifters40c852.42$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.111,13143.1%487 W · 644 L+0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8f4…c390backed Shifters37c826.6$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3049736.1%35 W · 62 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x483b…f0a3backed Natus Vincere59c817.44$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.1511563.5%73 W · 42 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb22f…8339backed Shifters25c802.25$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010341.7%43 W · 60 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2c…83afbacked Shifters1c800$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114202.6%11 W · 409 L-15.2wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-81.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd391…b109backed Shifters44c795.45$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35014046.4%65 W · 75 L-17.8wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-20.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.