MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12c5662bf95177737b0f08be79838b522b357e72a573d11045e98ccb83de7c6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,399.97 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…b2f4backed No | 52c | 17,537$9,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,119 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 51c | 3,440$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.18 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 51c | 1,795$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 48c | 1,772$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 48c | 990.2$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.9 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 52c | 780.46$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.84 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 47c | 532.08$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed No | 51c | 511.03$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.63 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 52c | 467.44$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.07 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 47c | 436.85$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.53 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 51c | 432.69$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.67 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 47c | 425$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.25 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed No | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 52c | 302.2$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Yes | 49c | 169.83$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 47c | 153.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.01 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked No | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed No | 53c | 90.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed No | 58c | 86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 51c | 82.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 52c | 73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…20e7backed No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…80a7backed Yes | 73c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb59…6552backed No | 51c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…ee6abacked No | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed No | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Redsthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.