MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x789a03cb965590caf8b9dfc77c49a48314ff8852a5622ffa575b3ebbf7315648
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 12,086$5,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,031.95 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 3,451$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.81 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 3,007$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.74 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 2,549$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.89 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 1,966$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.61 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 1,628$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.04 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 1,522$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 1,260$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.99 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 1,024$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.84 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 776.98$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 490$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed St. Louis Cardinals | 7c | 362$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 356.56$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 350$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 347.5$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.65 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 300.41$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 241.79$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 10c | 179.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.57 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 172.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 171.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.66 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 162.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.1 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 135.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 121$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…0defbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 117.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 111.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 109.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 106$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 104.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 79.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 71.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…1aa7backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 61.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 51.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 50.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 46.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed St. Louis Cardinals | 75c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 33.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 18.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.