MLB · resolved market

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0154ffbc42635ed37942e10c04c3482d516bc569ff2b6adebf85857cfa8219ce

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $87,306
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $87,561

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,306 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16bb…8492backed Under	55c	53,027$29,339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29,339.16	865	48.7%421 W · 444 L	-8.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e94…5ba1backed Over	45c	51,483$23,167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28,315.51	469	49%230 W · 239 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	55c	6,859$3,768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,767.86	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	44c	4,943$2,175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,767.8	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	44c	4,454$1,975 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,478.82	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	55c	4,277$2,345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,345.3	1,572	48.3%759 W · 813 L	-6.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under	56c	3,000$1,680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,680	447	49.2%220 W · 227 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over	44c	2,273$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,272.72	349	42.7%149 W · 200 L	-19.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over	44c	1,323$578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$745.17	1,555	48.9%761 W · 794 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over	44c	1,284$565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$719.04	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd2…14c2backed Under	55c	1,200$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$659.99	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb68…4ef3backed Over	46c	870.53$397 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$473.51	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	55c	495$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.25	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Under	55c	488.55$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.7	655	49.3%323 W · 332 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf92a…80a7backed Over	51c	477.28$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.22	56	66.1%37 W · 19 L	+4.7wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+36.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Over	48c	404$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.08	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed Under	58c	400$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	44c	396.73$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$223.63	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Over	44c	343$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.08	716	50.7%363 W · 353 L	+9.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Under	49c	307.24$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	45	46.7%21 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Under	55c	262.16$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.19	220	50.5%111 W · 109 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Over	43c	243.04$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.53	452	52.4%237 W · 215 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under	55c	228.1$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.63	583	52.1%304 W · 279 L	+13.7wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Over	43c	223.5$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.52	450	45.8%206 W · 244 L	-10.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over	55c	203.59$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.84	100	56%56 W · 44 L	+12.8wins	+0.13per pick	43cpaid	+34.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Under	57c	201$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.57	274	48.2%132 W · 142 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under	57c	200$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	+25.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17d9…84afbacked Over	44c	197.62$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.67	94	46.8%44 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Over	41c	194.79$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.85	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over	80c	187.5$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	58	50%29 W · 29 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	44c	181.1$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.31	2,296	49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L	+37.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	53c	175.3$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.77	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Over	50c	167.51$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.2	272	44.9%122 W · 150 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Under	57c	160$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.01	303	40.6%123 W · 180 L	-16.4wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under	52c	152.42$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	442	45.5%201 W · 241 L	+10.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	60c	150.43$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.99	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked Under	55c	145.44$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.99	285	53%151 W · 134 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Under	54c	136.36$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.63	370	52.2%193 W · 177 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over	46c	132.83$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.73	162	50.6%82 W · 80 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over	44c	125.02$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.01	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Over	38c	124.62$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.7	447	45.6%204 W · 243 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed Under	57c	123.74$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.53	321	57%183 W · 138 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Under	55c	121.76$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.23	175	48%84 W · 91 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc72…2888backed Under	36c	114$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.06	129	24.8%32 W · 97 L	-4.0wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb8…7017backed Over	44c	113.64$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.64	133	44.4%59 W · 74 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked Over	44c	113.64$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.64	151	47.7%72 W · 79 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b94…09dcbacked Over	44c	113.64$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.64	114	41.2%47 W · 67 L	-8.3wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-14%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Over	44c	112.77$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.15	2,021	39.5%798 W · 1,223 L	-25.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Over	43c	112.73$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.77	1,056	44.3%468 W · 588 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d8a…24c2backed Over	45c	107.97$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.38	54	53.7%29 W · 25 L	+4.2wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over	44c	94.31$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.81	1,725	50.1%864 W · 861 L	-4.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53d3…cc48backed Under	72c	93.14$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.06	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	49c	90.5$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.06	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under	55c	89.23$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.51	360	50.3%181 W · 179 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	43c	89$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.29	4,381	44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L	+77.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb361…7348backed Under	74c	85.8$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.49	109	53.2%58 W · 51 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under	56c	80$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.8	92	59.8%55 W · 37 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	59cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under	48c	76.04$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.48	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed Over	41c	63.2$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.29	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	74c	60$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.1	4,035	57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L	+72.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6016…1ab5backed Over	46c	52.78$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	58	51.7%30 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	43c	50.7$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.65	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3108…8a52backed Under	55c	44.85$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.67	50	54%27 W · 23 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2606…64b5backed Over	45c	44.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.44	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	+2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbe3…6599backed Under	57c	42.37$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.15	34	50%17 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under	48c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	1,927	17.2%331 W · 1,596 L	-320.3wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Under	55c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	104	52.9%55 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd4…de15backed Over	53c	38.25$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.96	171	60.8%104 W · 67 L	+11.2wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x49c5…3de7backed Over	44c	35.52$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.84	341	49.3%168 W · 173 L	-8.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb59…6552backed Under	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over	44c	34.67$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.42	1,206	53.7%648 W · 558 L	+29.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23df…640abacked Over	49c	34.36$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.37	400	48.5%194 W · 206 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Over	55c	31.62$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.39	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over	44c	31.52$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.79	133	45.9%61 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Over	43c	30.01$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.95	2,376	49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L	+17.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over	43c	29.58$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.86	1,777	49.5%880 W · 897 L	+25.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed Under	70c	28.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-2.7wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Over	45c	24.39$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.39	1,195	50%597 W · 598 L	+5.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x58d3…5651backed Over	45c	22.34$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.34	40	55%22 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over	62c	22$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.31	799	55.9%447 W · 352 L	+21.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9968…bee0backed Under	56c	21.34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b04…403fbacked Under	55c	20.96$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.53	60	48.3%29 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	72c	18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over	70c	16.83$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.1	1,879	40.6%763 W · 1,116 L	-39.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals won
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event