MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc985ab8bc95daea50f2da835dea6d467274a088cd8686066b3e49c85bd2c6dcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Over | 56c | 8,096$4,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,540.95 | 435 | 54%235 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 6,067$2,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,648.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…92d2backed Under | 69c | 2,584$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…a817backed Under | 2c | 1,958$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 1,788$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…1bfabacked Under | 59c | 1,203$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 39c | 667.37$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 30c | 545.74$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.87 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 453.73$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.86 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…0d00backed Under | 69c | 432.92$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…4a56backed Under | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 66c | 402.71$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.79 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 7c | 356.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 39c | 206.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.08 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked Under | 48c | 202.25$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 27c | 200.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.26 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 74c | 199.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.63 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 59c | 178.55$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 152.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 62c | 144.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 38c | 144.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 38c | 124.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Under | 67c | 104.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 35c | 95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 26c | 86.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 48c | 77.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 37c | 76.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 46c | 71.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Under | 34c | 63.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Under | 56c | 54.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Under | 57c | 51.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 49.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Under | 53c | 46.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Under | 60c | 45.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 51c | 42.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…20e7backed Under | 75c | 39.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Under | 77c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 37c | 38.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 63c | 34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb59…6552backed Under | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.