MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38cded696233bd7703dd7ec32cbdf3554d52e21dac92905d802f894a68a53de3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 59c | 9,226$5,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,443.37 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 42c | 7,168$3,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,128.92 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,950 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 56c | 3,697$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,076.31 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 43c | 1,610$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.75 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…f6adbacked No | 57c | 1,027$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.38 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5633…59bcbacked No | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Yes | 43c | 799.99$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 55c | 560$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 43c | 459.76$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.19 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 44c | 389.47$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.57 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 340.83$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.85 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b3…145dbacked No | 59c | 296.61$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 220 | 55.5%122 W · 98 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 46c | 277.75$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.33 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked No | 58c | 256.87$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 46c | 249.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.14 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed No | 55c | 181.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked No | 56c | 166$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.96 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 43c | 131.27$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 45c | 89.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 43c | 80.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 57c | 49.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 55c | 32.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…46f9backed Yes | 43c | 32.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 56c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9f…10cabacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed No | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlinsthis page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.