MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf234ef72444f0cfb1d682f638d20bb0773d27e18587ff5e19eea31ad6b628c08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 24,010$10,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,653.5 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 50c | 16,827$8,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,413.41 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 70c | 6,302$4,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,434.65 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 49c | 6,072$2,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,974.05 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 50c | 5,523$2,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.47 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 50c | 3,200$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 2,422$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 52c | 2,390$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.43 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…9e12backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 50c | 1,768$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 1,504$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.94 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 1,294$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 974.34$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.82 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 50c | 888$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Over | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 796.9$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.98 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 62c | 700$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 66c | 533.09$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.56 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…dc4dbacked Under | 52c | 384.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.61 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed Over | 48c | 341.87$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.1 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 312.18$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.3 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 38c | 245.05$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.06 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 48c | 244.85$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.36 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 44c | 239.67$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.33 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Over | 9c | 201.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 199.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 47c | 174.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked Over | 50c | 122.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 51c | 98.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…24c2backed Under | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 89.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 75.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b8…0f33backed Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 49c | 65.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 80c | 64.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 48c | 63.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 60c | 57.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 48c | 55.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 41c | 53.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…30f5backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 731 | 43.4%317 W · 414 L | -15.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Under | 53c | 47.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 49c | 43.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 72c | 41.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 39.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Under | 42c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Under | 50c | 34.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed Under | 53c | 32.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 47c | 31.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed Under | 53c | 30.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 881 | 47.8%421 W · 460 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 51c | 28.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Under | 46c | 25.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 49c | 25.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 49c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 57c | 17.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.