MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ad3f30637be7476ffbd0c61256b565f74aa6bd5531426f45dfa97f2225f5688
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.05 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 3,364$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.31 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 46c | 1,018$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.11 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189c…c9aebacked Under | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78e3…2bcabacked Under | 52c | 913.72$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 53c | 698.82$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.47 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 6c | 670.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 53c | 648.87$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.97 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 50c | 505$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.5 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 46c | 332.37$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…db45backed Under | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 47c | 239.11$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.23 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 30c | 219.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…796bbacked Under | 45c | 140$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 120.43$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 49c | 120.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 38c | 118.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…4d10backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 59c | 74.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 68c | 59.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 43c | 53.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Under | 57c | 52.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 39c | 51.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8237…ae4bbacked Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 39c | 39.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 59c | 38.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 63c | 37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…080bbacked Over | 53c | 34.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 53c | 30.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 53c | 30.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 75c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6380…e633backed Under | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 53c | 19.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.