TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,505
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,803

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,505 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals14c9,901$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.3111,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Washington Nationals0c5,250$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.458762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Washington Nationals37c4,650$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,720.4720836.5%76 W · 132 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Miami Marlins63c4,344$2,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.2999149.9%495 W · 496 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Washington Nationals10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017014.1%24 W · 146 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals9c2,448$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.0610,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Washington Nationals13c2,320$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.9982042.6%349 W · 471 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x537a…7447backed Washington Nationals9c1,925$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16510725.2%27 W · 80 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals8c1,873$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.1412,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55b9…a814backed Washington Nationals24c1,576$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.2427446.7%128 W · 146 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Washington Nationals24c1,525$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36625153%133 W · 118 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Miami Marlins64c1,124$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.7934550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x425d…86e1backed Washington Nationals10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005318.9%10 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ef…befcbacked Washington Nationals36c999.99$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36029947.2%141 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34b8…81afbacked Washington Nationals11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007751.9%40 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals36c774.51$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.996,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Miami Marlins63c650.62$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.7390053.6%482 W · 418 L+24.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals7c610.77$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.669,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Washington Nationals10c606.85$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2628245.7%129 W · 153 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Washington Nationals14c553.28$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.4586948.4%421 W · 448 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeefa…f400backed Washington Nationals13c499.74$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.921428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals6c494.12$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.198,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Miami Marlins63c476.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.1935054.6%191 W · 159 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e55…a332backed Washington Nationals36c442.97$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.477953.2%42 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Miami Marlins64c409.99$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.657753.2%307 W · 270 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c8…1badbacked Miami Marlins66c407.08$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4116439%64 W · 100 L-12.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x38fa…87b5backed Washington Nationals12c382.76$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6821233.5%71 W · 141 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Nationals17c340.1$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.454,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6597…b746backed Washington Nationals33c330.3$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10925951.4%133 W · 126 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ab5…ff12backed Miami Marlins64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+24.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb43e…8200backed Washington Nationals38c302.17$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.8222744.9%102 W · 125 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x94bb…02ccbacked Washington Nationals36c250$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9025147%118 W · 133 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed Washington Nationals37c190$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.31,41843.4%616 W · 802 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Washington Nationals9c181.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1335658.1%207 W · 149 L+26.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Washington Nationals9c177.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72f3…d396backed Miami Marlins64c171.88$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8851646.9%242 W · 274 L-21.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed Washington Nationals37c170$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.91,22143.4%530 W · 691 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Washington Nationals37c164.56$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8984840.2%341 W · 507 L-3.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Washington Nationals12c161.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,17643.8%515 W · 661 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked Washington Nationals37c160$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.21,32644%583 W · 743 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc92c…6f15backed Miami Marlins63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7327757%158 W · 119 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce7…3150backed Miami Marlins63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7316146.6%75 W · 86 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Miami Marlins64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2512049.2%59 W · 61 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Miami Marlins64c156$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.1611457%65 W · 49 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Miami Marlins64c153.85$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3948446.7%226 W · 258 L-33.7wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Washington Nationals38c152.39$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9179943.2%345 W · 454 L-2.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98d8…20f6backed Miami Marlins64c151.56$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.564656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5735…9f18backed Miami Marlins62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575966.1%39 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9e7…af6bbacked Washington Nationals36c134$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2445651.1%233 W · 223 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x718f…f25abacked Washington Nationals15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206325.4%16 W · 47 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe29…eb76backed Washington Nationals15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2026242.7%112 W · 150 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Washington Nationals9c124.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5988656.4%500 W · 386 L+30.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Washington Nationals37c107.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9596553%511 W · 454 L+18.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda74…2dd7backed Washington Nationals37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371,29343.5%562 W · 731 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals36c99.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.835,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Miami Marlins64c95.23$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.281,00344.6%447 W · 556 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb8e…3dc3backed Washington Nationals33c90.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304833.3%16 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fe3…6580backed Washington Nationals37c79.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.654255.9%303 W · 239 L+18.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd32f…4f71backed Miami Marlins63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.373860.5%23 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Washington Nationals37c77.92$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8367152.5%352 W · 319 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Washington Nationals24c62.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1559534.5%205 W · 390 L-22.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa2cb…a226backed Miami Marlins63c56.25$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8140456.2%227 W · 177 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Washington Nationals38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2074143.5%322 W · 419 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Miami Marlins63c52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.242,05053.8%1,103 W · 947 L+33.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b12…1a7bbacked Miami Marlins58c51.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.644100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x36bf…7398backed Washington Nationals37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.567143.2%290 W · 381 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Washington Nationals37c48.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.962,99547.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L+12.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6b6…f6dfbacked Washington Nationals42c46.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5429241.4%121 W · 171 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ab…832dbacked Washington Nationals25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+14.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Washington Nationals36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…0b95backed Miami Marlins63c39.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.683865.8%25 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80f8…d012backed Washington Nationals38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa678…dd59backed Miami Marlins63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.751776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e28…625cbacked Miami Marlins63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7522762.1%141 W · 86 L+10.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57b4…da40backed Miami Marlins63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.758465.5%55 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Washington Nationals37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.12,41349.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0993…5047backed Washington Nationals39c26.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.493435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins57c25.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.111,93941.2%799 W · 1,140 L-30.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb3…4a24backed Miami Marlins63c25.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4312548%60 W · 65 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc020…5edbbacked Miami Marlins63c25.4$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.425752.9%136 W · 121 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27fd…5d22backed Miami Marlins63c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.775955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Miami Marlins57c20.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.641163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4985…686fbacked Miami Marlins63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.46246.8%29 W · 33 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda66…3f38backed Miami Marlins63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.43366.7%22 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb4…f89dbacked Miami Marlins67c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.67897.4%76 W · 2 L+20.1wins+0.26per pick72cpaid+36.1%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.