MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06ae8b22bc20db8c4574c8cb9fcde54cf6cd3ff548b06b8d622c58e01e83261d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Miami Marlins, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x927c…6633backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 16,000$10,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,125.1 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 13,722$5,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,698.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…2351backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 3,050$1,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,947.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 2,560$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.96 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 1,593$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 41c | 1,502$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Washington Nationals | 44c | 1,307$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.16 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 1,200$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.98 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 976.05$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.79 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 974.85$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.53 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Washington Nationals | 60c | 412.73$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.09 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 40c | 350.78$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.31 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 310.2$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.2 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 30c | 187$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.9 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…de15backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 170.3$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 171 | 60.8%104 W · 67 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 163$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 150.83$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.02 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Washington Nationals | 30c | 130$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 98.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 72c | 56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Washington Nationals | 45c | 44.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 39.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 39.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 36.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 29.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 25.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 25.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f8…99d0backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 18.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.