MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x654a8dc95dd26b6222a50d4a826cfe1e192b0712d29a3a6809cf62f96e946669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb727…2a9dbacked Yes | 46c | 21,800$10,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,771.99 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 12,996$7,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,018.01 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 54c | 5,671$3,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,062.34 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…0fdfbacked No | 54c | 5,381$2,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,924.59 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…6dc8backed No | 55c | 4,789$2,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,634.04 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 45c | 3,964$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 45c | 2,999$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.7 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked No | 57c | 1,323$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.46 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 43c | 1,020$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.84 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Yes | 46c | 889.2$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.17 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 46c | 874$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.96 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 54c | 740$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.6 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed No | 54c | 507.41$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 46c | 161$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ff…7354backed No | 55c | 95.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…2fa8backed No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 222 | 54.1%120 W · 102 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 46c | 56.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…e128backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed No | 55c | 31.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked No | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed No | 54c | 21.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Philliesthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.