MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb673fa01ff65d21f652f568d9ede36905382b5480d9760bbcd8fc85f73688c7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Under | 46c | 6,455$2,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,969.16 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 6,137$3,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,829.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Under | 46c | 5,263$2,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.27 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 3,923$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 54c | 1,002$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.01 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 809.13$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 68c | 347$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7f…824bbacked Over | 55c | 344.84$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.18 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 54c | 318.76$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.11 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 45c | 263.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 34c | 207.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 195$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 54c | 189$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 65c | 159.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 67c | 157.26$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…8c91backed Over | 71c | 141.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 123.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 59c | 87.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Under | 18c | 83.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 55c | 55.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Over | 74c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 45c | 39.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 55c | 39.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 54c | 33.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 69c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 72c | 16.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 78c | 13.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.