MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fe952c730b81af4a18c4c90b4d5eafafc2d8e2875d9c185a4c97c305fced236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 55c | 111,023$61,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,459.88 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 49c | 50,419$24,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,853.63 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 38,036$16,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,556.03 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 36c | 8,620$3,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,541.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 78c | 4,765$3,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.45 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 4,024$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 2,658$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,378.74 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 2,025$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 989.5$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.83 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf1…0db6backed Under | 54c | 989.5$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.33 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 32c | 615.23$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.75 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 47c | 500.32$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.17 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 41c | 499$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.18 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 423.49$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.3 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 49c | 409.09$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 37c | 338.56$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.05 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 47c | 287.19$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.21 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 57c | 217.54$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.54 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 43c | 202.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Under | 42c | 196.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 49c | 118.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 60c | 85.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 47c | 72.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 44c | 61.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 44c | 61.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…f8bdbacked Over | 79c | 61.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 44c | 52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed Over | 42c | 49.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Over | 43c | 45.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Over | 42c | 38.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 52c | 36.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 35c | 35.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 43c | 31.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 51c | 22.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 62c | 18.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.