MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55528e88afb9696f1d1d2645e443a04f5359c3cda4ad8483b7866ac8ace7ca4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 26c | 3,008$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.67 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 54c | 2,408$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.44 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 79c | 2,117$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 46c | 1,100$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 46c | 848.56$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.22 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 776.99$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.57 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 617$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.43 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77aa…9bd5backed Under | 34c | 604.79$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 405.08$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.62 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 404.99$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 35c | 345.29$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 344$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.84 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 63c | 303.88$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.41 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 54c | 261$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.94 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Under | 54c | 175.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 36c | 170.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Over | 47c | 159.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 53c | 142.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 133.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Under | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 124.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 48c | 109.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 68c | 96.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Over | 62c | 90.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Over | 65c | 80.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 41c | 56.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 79c | 53.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 79c | 53.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Under | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb4…b6e1backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 70c | 17.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.