TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Top Esportsof Bilibili Gaming, Top Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,579
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,021

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,579 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Top Esports57c19,375$11,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,331.321,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Top Esports57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,299.9920748.8%101 W · 106 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Bilibili Gaming43c8,271$3,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,562.052,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Bilibili Gaming43c7,177$3,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,086.0312840.6%52 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb496…1f45backed Top Esports52c6,000$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8805740.4%23 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked Bilibili Gaming42c5,010$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.122548%12 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Bilibili Gaming49c4,300$2,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,094.8469741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Bilibili Gaming42c4,136$1,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.211245.5%51 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66b2…0fdfbacked Bilibili Gaming43c4,071$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.5331849.7%158 W · 160 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked Top Esports58c3,736$2,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.217444.8%78 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Bilibili Gaming43c3,488$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50022547.6%107 W · 118 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Bilibili Gaming43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,29017241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Top Esports56c2,781$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.452750.5%266 W · 261 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8af…9ea8backed Bilibili Gaming48c2,500$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.451346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Bilibili Gaming43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86047455.3%262 W · 212 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Top Esports58c1,897$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.5575630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked Top Esports57c1,755$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.5217555.4%97 W · 78 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3bc…5bd2backed Top Esports59c1,683$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.6628948.1%139 W · 150 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a76…29dcbacked Bilibili Gaming51c1,419$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.6813764.2%88 W · 49 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Bilibili Gaming43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51632145.5%146 W · 175 L+11.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Top Esports56c1,092$611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.4459248.3%286 W · 306 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f17…6001backed Bilibili Gaming41c1,082$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.992951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Top Esports57c1,060$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.7923948.1%115 W · 124 L+0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Bilibili Gaming41c999.99$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4101,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Top Esports59c999.99$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41051852.7%273 W · 245 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb03…46dcbacked Bilibili Gaming42c999.98$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9942751.5%220 W · 207 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Top Esports66c976.98$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.772,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Top Esports58c800$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3364755.3%26 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4cf…99a6backed Top Esports58c775.86$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.862552%13 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Top Esports61c754.11$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.772,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bae…cec4backed Bilibili Gaming43c697.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006451.6%33 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a4c…55babacked Bilibili Gaming43c697$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7110859.3%64 W · 44 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8059…f1f3backed Bilibili Gaming43c599.95$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.9824648.4%119 W · 127 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Bilibili Gaming40c518.65$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.5864749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Top Esports59c517.02$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.651,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Bilibili Gaming36c509.12$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.4597854.4%532 W · 446 L+48.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Top Esports57c500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21548847.3%231 W · 257 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8b87…dffdbacked Top Esports57c486.18$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.06728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff6f…6311backed Bilibili Gaming47c472$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.11656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa87d…ff4dbacked Bilibili Gaming43c465.12$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003354.5%18 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Bilibili Gaming41c426.83$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17550956.2%286 W · 223 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6daa…954abacked Bilibili Gaming44c406.91$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.0413250%66 W · 66 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed Top Esports58c400$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16822746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Top Esports58c388.25$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.0728746%132 W · 155 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a2c…5172backed Bilibili Gaming41c351.22$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14443640.6%177 W · 259 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0160…1224backed Top Esports57c351$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.9323639.8%94 W · 142 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaad1…172ebacked Top Esports58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.833756.8%21 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8cd2…648cbacked Top Esports58c340$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.895048.5%461 W · 489 L+26.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Top Esports53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14134849.1%171 W · 177 L+11.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56a2…aa49backed Top Esports58c292.36$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.791978.9%15 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick65cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Top Esports57c239.79$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.1135642.4%151 W · 205 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d3…42e4backed Bilibili Gaming43c238.37$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.526440.9%108 W · 156 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x500f…4c28backed Bilibili Gaming43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018849.5%93 W · 95 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13ba…53e4backed Bilibili Gaming43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011943.7%52 W · 67 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x265f…a30bbacked Bilibili Gaming44c230$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.315624.4%38 W · 118 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3105…2e7ebacked Top Esports58c212.07$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.076858.8%40 W · 28 L+9.8wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+35.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x842c…cc1ebacked Bilibili Gaming43c209.3$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906139.3%24 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b47…1540backed Bilibili Gaming43c205.86$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5221060%126 W · 84 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07b6…0ab8backed Bilibili Gaming44c205.76$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.531250%6 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ad…734fbacked Bilibili Gaming60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12016047.5%76 W · 84 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa287…271fbacked Bilibili Gaming40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0fb…8092backed Bilibili Gaming42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$848447.6%40 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeef9…8731backed Top Esports57c179$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9734756.5%196 W · 151 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed Top Esports58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4152441%215 W · 309 L+21.6wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14b7…aab1backed Top Esports58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4119045.3%86 W · 104 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked Bilibili Gaming43c159.77$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.71,02445%461 W · 563 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bilibili Gaming40c143.38$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.581,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76bb…4548backed Bilibili Gaming31c121.33$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3834960.7%212 W · 137 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked Bilibili Gaming43c120$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.624554.7%134 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed Bilibili Gaming43c115.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507642.1%32 W · 44 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-14.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x69e4…9bacbacked Bilibili Gaming43c114.41$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.224949.8%124 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Top Esports45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1125542%107 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Bilibili Gaming43c110$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.361746.5%287 W · 330 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Bilibili Gaming44c109.82$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8134340.5%139 W · 204 L-18.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Bilibili Gaming46c109.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0763944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda54…63d4backed Bilibili Gaming43c104.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4513537%50 W · 85 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x55e3…b615backed Top Esports58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4515950.3%80 W · 79 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Top Esports52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4860243.4%261 W · 341 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Bilibili Gaming43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4335159.5%209 W · 142 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc76e…caa5backed Bilibili Gaming42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4231352.4%164 W · 149 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4781…16e6backed Bilibili Gaming43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4311852.5%62 W · 56 L-0.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbb…3df5backed Top Esports58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4230151.5%155 W · 146 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbadb…a760backed Bilibili Gaming43c99.39$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.747358.9%43 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9c1…026dbacked Bilibili Gaming44c97.77$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.026955.1%38 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Bilibili Gaming43c91.71$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7921751.2%111 W · 106 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4e…5973backed Bilibili Gaming42c83.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3555744%245 W · 312 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Top Esports56c80.72$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.2462451.4%321 W · 303 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x091a…8287backed Top Esports57c77.58$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.364365.1%28 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa73a…27d9backed Top Esports60c76.08$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4339652%206 W · 190 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91dc…ca3abacked Bilibili Gaming42c72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.246446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Bilibili Gaming43c67.21$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.91,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Top Esports45c66.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.6718342.1%77 W · 106 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Bilibili Gaming43c61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.236855.9%38 W · 30 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+17.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x67c9…1ef1backed Top Esports58c55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.11442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Top Esports58c52.5$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8739555.2%218 W · 177 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3214…cfcbbacked Top Esports50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe497…84aabacked Bilibili Gaming43c48.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2137950.9%193 W · 186 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1965…2c2dbacked Bilibili Gaming43c44.91$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3124328.8%70 W · 173 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb8a…26b5backed Top Esports58c43.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Top Esports58c42.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7928329.7%84 W · 199 L-32.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-44.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.