TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Liquidof Team Liquid, Sentinels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$586,049
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$619,013

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $586,049 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 379 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed Sentinels42c146,548$61,849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,849.2622850.9%116 W · 112 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b1d…76a0backed Sentinels58c76,579$44,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,213.683138.7%12 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Team Liquid42c56,892$23,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,067.2625946.7%121 W · 138 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Team Liquid53c42,187$22,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,820.11,30045.2%587 W · 713 L+50.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Sentinels41c33,333$13,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,666.5153750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa759…1119backed Team Liquid63c29,647$18,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,020.5111367.3%76 W · 37 L+14.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed Team Liquid57c18,500$10,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,8856556.9%37 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Sentinels33c18,389$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00021248.6%103 W · 109 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Team Liquid66c13,635$8,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,681.3548449.8%241 W · 243 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69b1…2687backed Sentinels30c12,367$3,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,697.1830843.2%133 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Liquid59c10,739$6,336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,403.011,63540.2%657 W · 978 L+48.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Team Liquid69c9,000$6,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,789.9858457.7%337 W · 247 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Sentinels8c8,844$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.51333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Sentinels29c7,511$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,169.841,59653.7%857 W · 739 L+56.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Team Liquid71c7,284$5,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,124.361,09752.3%574 W · 523 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b89…a4cdbacked Team Liquid72c6,970$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.1671157%405 W · 306 L+40.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ec8…1d07backed Team Liquid59c6,752$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,752.1512553.6%67 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4ac…9722backed Team Liquid68c5,882$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.359944.4%44 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d21…b3cfbacked Sentinels41c5,695$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,344.0936359%214 W · 149 L+21.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Liquid55c5,347$2,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,402.261,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed Sentinels39c4,817$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.1889746.9%421 W · 476 L+43.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed Team Liquid57c4,768$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,068.3459459.1%351 W · 243 L+26.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Sentinels50c4,662$2,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,321.281,42838.4%548 W · 880 L-42.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked Sentinels27c3,590$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.2217844.4%79 W · 99 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a35…9015backed Team Liquid57c3,509$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.7737344%164 W · 209 L-16.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Sentinels30c3,300$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99030421.7%66 W · 238 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed Team Liquid57c3,105$1,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.4362158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d51…d971backed Team Liquid64c3,103$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.3767457.3%386 W · 288 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Sentinels38c3,033$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.341,54062.6%964 W · 576 L+158.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf032…895dbacked Team Liquid65c3,005$1,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.2422059.5%131 W · 89 L+14.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb039…c6d9backed Team Liquid70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90016750.9%85 W · 82 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Sentinels33c3,000$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.98333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf163…ca34backed Team Liquid72c2,969$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.531,49248.4%722 W · 770 L+47.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Sentinels47c2,752$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.651,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Team Liquid57c2,683$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.7846450.6%235 W · 229 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked Team Liquid50c2,380$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.9828544.9%128 W · 157 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x825e…2a99backed Sentinels34c2,333$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80027749.1%136 W · 141 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Team Liquid71c2,229$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65664849.8%323 W · 325 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Team Liquid63c2,197$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.067663.2%48 W · 28 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7f…12d5backed Sentinels31c2,178$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.285554.5%30 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ba…246cbacked Team Liquid61c2,148$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.5827352.4%143 W · 130 L+13.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed Team Liquid70c2,103$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.9661154.7%334 W · 277 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked Team Liquid64c2,100$1,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7561,52254.7%832 W · 690 L+37.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2518…254fbacked Team Liquid51c2,070$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.754555.2%301 W · 244 L+24.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed Team Liquid70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60039851.8%206 W · 192 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed Team Liquid66c2,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68015253.3%81 W · 71 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Team Liquid57c2,000$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86090443.6%394 W · 510 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Sentinels30c2,000$596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5961,07147.1%504 W · 567 L+2.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Liquid51c1,906$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.072,02030.5%617 W · 1,403 L-172.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Team Liquid40c1,864$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.545547.7%217 W · 238 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x823d…f85bbacked Team Liquid59c1,787$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$734.5912254.1%66 W · 56 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Liquid58c1,769$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.212,54039.7%1,009 W · 1,531 L-79.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Team Liquid60c1,644$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.5466845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ed…b819backed Team Liquid77c1,635$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.956866.2%45 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Team Liquid57c1,581$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.691,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Team Liquid46c1,560$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.9884360.7%512 W · 331 L+44.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked Team Liquid67c1,503$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.159241.3%38 W · 54 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Sentinels29c1,503$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.611,21954.5%664 W · 555 L+52.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Team Liquid78c1,419$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.741,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Liquid49c1,307$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.033,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Team Liquid71c1,289$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.7346552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…8927backed Sentinels37c1,143$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.7642050.5%212 W · 208 L+27.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Team Liquid70c1,115$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.221,46961.4%902 W · 567 L-20.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Sentinels30c1,110$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3331,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Team Liquid59c1,107$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.0670641.5%293 W · 413 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Team Liquid68c1,100$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35296350.2%483 W · 480 L+1.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x532b…30c1backed Team Liquid49c1,070$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.149339.8%37 W · 56 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5acf…ead4backed Team Liquid49c1,018$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.7416445.1%74 W · 90 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fdb…7857backed Sentinels58c1,016$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.018373.5%61 W · 22 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Sentinels30c1,015$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.548548.7%236 W · 249 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Sentinels44c1,004$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.671,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Sentinels57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57063746.5%296 W · 341 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked Sentinels1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbbb…3df5backed Team Liquid70c1,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30030251.3%155 W · 147 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Sentinels37c986.52$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.491,05650.4%532 W · 524 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Team Liquid64c980.44$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.5382260.9%501 W · 321 L+0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4873…15babacked Team Liquid58c968.23$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.4317953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Liquid50c957.35$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.3530357.1%173 W · 130 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Sentinels32c949.78$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.1435542.3%150 W · 205 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ae…df49backed Team Liquid53c939.98$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.5923432.5%76 W · 158 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Team Liquid64c929.99$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.590350.8%459 W · 444 L+17.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Liquid50c877.89$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.831,14338.8%444 W · 699 L-46.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a99…51bbbacked Team Liquid70c857.14$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.1483149.8%414 W · 417 L+2.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbafa…02e0backed Team Liquid57c824.1$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.180750.8%410 W · 397 L+48.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Team Liquid64c800$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.0186649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc14…1d66backed Team Liquid55c799.99$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3604736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Sentinels30c790.3$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7247136.9%174 W · 297 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b2…0fdfbacked Team Liquid58c789.99$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.231949.8%159 W · 160 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4641…26bebacked Team Liquid57c769.1$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.482580%20 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+33.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Sentinels43c748.41$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.192,23733.3%745 W · 1,492 L-71.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe846…252bbacked Sentinels29c714.78$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.1720336.9%75 W · 128 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09a6…73c7backed Team Liquid57c701.75$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.753969.2%27 W · 12 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Liquid55c682.01$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.411,18166%780 W · 401 L+70.1wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0612…6193backed Team Liquid64c674$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.321749.8%108 W · 109 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked Team Liquid56c664.04$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.9136655.7%204 W · 162 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb8…5a88backed Sentinels31c656.47$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.5135654.8%195 W · 161 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e2d…5c89backed Team Liquid58c644.75$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Team Liquid59c629.99$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.349947.1%235 W · 264 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Sentinels49c619.88$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.8646451.7%240 W · 224 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5703…1048backed Team Liquid42c616.86$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.8623243.5%101 W · 131 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.