TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will AJ Barner win the Super Bowl LX MVP?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$283,353
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,994

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,353 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1341…0853backed Yes0c63,839$198 inLost-$198.418164.2%52 W · 29 L+12.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+137.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c45,000$45 inLost-$4514926.2%39 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6799…6410backed Yes0c32,364$52 inLost-$52.3680%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c20,498$28 inLost-$27.66650%0 W · 65 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Yes0c20,108$40 inLost-$40.119754.6%53 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes0c11,074$11 inLost-$11.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-54.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ef…4e3cbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$111833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6332…5a1abacked Yes0c10,113$20 inLost-$201020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ac…633bbacked Yes0c9,525$20 inLost-$19.57110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d8b…57cdbacked Yes0c8,000$16 inLost-$161118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick8cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x065c…7891backed Yes0c4,290$20 inLost-$20229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4387…2b3dbacked Yes5c2,086$100 inLost-$1002128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bbc…3120backed Yes36c35.8$13 inLost-$13540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.