TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbac6…9e2f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
71
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NFL, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 58 out of 100; worst NBA at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST3030%9 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Heat vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$149Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+196.2%+$292.71
Spread: Rockets (-6.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+85.2%+$92
Celtics vs. Rocketsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+203%+$81.21
Trail Blazers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+185.7%+$74.29
Rockets vs. Mavericksbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Clippers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$43
Spurs vs. Magicbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+156.4%+$31.28
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Wizards vs. 76ersbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Bucks vs. Knicksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Pistons vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Knicks vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Lakers vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Spurs vs. Sunsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Trail Blazers vs. Thunderbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Nets vs. Raptorsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Hornets vs. Hawksbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Raptors vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Bulls vs. Bucksbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Rockets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+122.2%+$24.44
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Thunder vs. Trail Blazersbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Pelicans vs. Mavericksbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+244.8%+$48.97
Rockets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+37.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kayshon Boutte win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Drake Maye win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will TreVeyon Henderson win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Marcus Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Rhamondre Stevenson win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$250
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+1,071.4%+$214.28
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+92.3%+$478.07
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+88.7%+$177.36
Will LAR/CHI/BUF/PHI/NE/HOU win their 2026 NFL Wild Card round games?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$100
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+212.5%+$212.5
Will LAR/CHI/JAX/PHI/NE/HOU win their 2026 NFL Wild Card round games?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Panthers vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+31.6%+$12.63
Eagles vs. Cowboysbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Jaguars vs. Cardinalsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+78.6%+$78.57
Colts vs. Chiefsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Patriots vs. Bengalsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+29.9%+$5.97
Jets vs. Ravensbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Vikings vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+38.9%+$13.61
49ers vs. Cardinalsbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+72.4%+$31.86
Panthers vs. Falconsbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Buccaneers vs. Billsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+40.8%+$8.17
Patriots vs. Buccaneersbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+132.6%+$26.51
Browns vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+117.4%+$23.48
Broncos vs. Texansbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+122.2%+$24.44
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-70.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+135.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+25.6%+$76.71
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$131.23
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$97.93
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chainlink reach $20 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+143.9%+$259.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Predators vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+100%+$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+63.9%+$63.93
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.