TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will LAR/CHI/BUF/PHI/NE/HOU win their 2026 NFL Wild Card round games?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,272
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,882

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,272 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,875$30 inLost-$29.895679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes8c1,106$86 inLost-$85.8421227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes8c934$77 inLost-$77.496934.8%24 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2425…3dd1backed Yes5c441$22 inLost-$22.051520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac6…9e2fbacked Yes29c341.12$100 inLost-$1002653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+37.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…9652backed Yes8c300$23 inLost-$22.55145.1%23 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No72c197.21$142 inWon+$55.0922838.6%88 W · 140 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4dd…737abacked Yes15c136.05$20 inLost-$202040%8 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes12c102.48$12 inLost-$12.4478.5%4 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes13c100$13 inLost-$12.658047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd28a…fc48backed Yes13c100$13 inLost-$132832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f4e…52f2backed Yes31c97.34$30 inLost-$30616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-76.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa221…7588backed Yes23c87.91$20 inLost-$20850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No73c79.35$58 inWon+$21.051145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked No71c25$18 inWon+$7.2514844.6%66 W · 82 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.