TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will LAR/CHI/BUF/SF/NE/HOU win their 2026 NFL Wild Card round games?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,143
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,143 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes5c1,139$61 inWon+$1,078.038828.4%25 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No25c1,103$276 inLost-$275.66934.8%24 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes39c683.52$269 inWon+$414.167042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9038…f74cbacked Yes7c606.06$40 inWon+$566.066139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Yes59c322.32$191 inWon+$131.551090%9 W · 1 L+3.9wins+0.39per pick51cpaid+97.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes58c284$164 inWon+$119.548441.7%35 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No26c260$67 inLost-$67.3223244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No58c253.02$148 inLost-$147.5122838.6%88 W · 140 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No31c226.7$70 inLost-$70.481145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed No60c215.05$129 inLost-$128.8159453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes24c120$29 inWon+$91.3221227.8%59 W · 153 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85ba…e33abacked No41c80$33 inLost-$32.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed No58c57.09$33 inLost-$33.361844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa221…7588backed Yes40c49.5$20 inWon+$29.5850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b8c…2ce1backed Yes59c40$24 inWon+$16.41266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked No41c40$17 inLost-$16.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No42c38.7$16 inLost-$16.295679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99d9…7db4backed Yes56c35.43$20 inWon+$15.437100%7 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x82fa…d857backed Yes41c30$12 inWon+$17.71560%9 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes57c20$11 inWon+$8.524816.7%8 W · 40 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-63.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2dfa…63d5backed Yes57c20$11 inWon+$8.66475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…e859backed Yes57c20$11 inWon+$8.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8573…1747backed Yes59c18.69$11 inWon+$7.69650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Yes59c17.05$10 inWon+$6.984148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.