NFL · resolved market

Will LAR/CHI/BUF/SF/NE/PIT win their 2026 NFL Wild Card round games?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4b192e85fbf225defd3edbc3b709b6bc05021d41acd75ce9203db9b0fe1904b

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 13, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $10,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,944 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NFL
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd184…d2cebacked Yes	30c	2,257$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$677.1	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No	50c	2,000$1,008 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$992	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+77.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes	50c	1,018$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504.66	88	28.4%25 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecf4…9979backed Yes	49c	721.76$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.56	84	50%42 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No	50c	506.47$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$253.24	212	27.8%59 W · 153 L	+10.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No	77c	466.72$358 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.78	69	34.8%24 W · 45 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed No	70c	316$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.83	594	53.7%319 W · 275 L	+24.2wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	74c	260$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.12	232	44.4%103 W · 129 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No	63c	140.07$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.21	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…019dbacked No	59c	73.22$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.8	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.33per pick	48cpaid	-75.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	41c	67.8$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.73	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	31c	63.01$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.48	567	9.9%56 W · 511 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes	38c	52.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-47%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.62	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will LAR/CHI/BUF/SF/NE/PIT win their 2026 NFL Wild Card round games?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event