NFL · resolved market
Big Game: Overtime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x804805ca599b193e388cd01f904677c186f47c92d7afb0fad826419727e3781f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $159,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $159,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 9c | 53,702$4,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,613.51 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 7c | 16,334$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a06…3800backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…9889backed Yes | 8c | 9,771$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 9c | 7,131$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.84 | 232 | 44.4%103 W · 129 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 5c | 4,318$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.9 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f59…1866backed Yes | 14c | 3,575$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 7c | 3,323$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.12 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 7c | 2,462$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 2,223$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…398fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 7c | 1,420$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed Yes | 8c | 1,016$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133c…46a0backed Yes | 9c | 1,002$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 867.48$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…64efbacked Yes | 12c | 843.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…bf99backed Yes | 14c | 707.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2693…9a84backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382f…4fa6backed Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de7…73a5backed Yes | 8c | 566$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 7c | 470.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…1249backed Yes | 9c | 444.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…d1d8backed Yes | 7c | 439.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb4…36c3backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 7c | 314.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d8…7a55backed Yes | 16c | 313.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6c…428ebacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54c5…d244backed Yes | 8c | 287.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…b503backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8911…8a41backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +263.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…4958backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f37…df9fbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7033…3d7abacked Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56f1…485cbacked Yes | 7c | 267.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefd5…af20backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b7…e1bdbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…ea78backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe112…ae59backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 244.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 144 | 4.9%7 W · 137 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…b683backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe12f…d1babacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…91bcbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9627backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 6c | 199.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 10c | 191.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504d…4387backed Yes | 8c | 185.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ea…d14dbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…d936backed Yes | 8c | 162.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe665…79bbbacked Yes | 13c | 154.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…c8c3backed Yes | 12c | 142.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4f…a8fcbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…c448backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…cbddbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b9…8811backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 17c | 120.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…3203backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f2…94b7backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.