College Football · resolved market
James Madison vs. Oregon: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a944bd32eeac7d62638b5b51beafb745a1a52d4563622439d794a701c701c88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 14,625$6,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,830.22 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 54c | 10,000$5,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,350 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 4,415$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.58 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 3,440$1,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.6 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 2,829$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.75 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,351$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.77 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 53c | 1,550$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 65c | 1,310$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.9 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 35c | 1,163$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.05 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Under | 19c | 650$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.5 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 402.45$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.25 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbde…a758backed Under | 48c | 353$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.44 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 68c | 247$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c9…cc4cbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 52c | 189.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 108$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Under | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Over | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…7b0fbacked Over | 50c | 71.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 48c | 71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 42c | 35.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed Over | 58c | 35.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Madison vs. Oregon: O/U 47.5this page
- James Madison vs. OregonOregon won
- James Madison vs. Oregon: 1H MoneylineOregon won
- James Madison vs. Oregon: O/U 45.5Over won
- James Madison vs. Oregon: O/U 46.5Over won
- O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Oregon (-21.5)James Madison won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.